Some of the colleagues whose company I enjoy most and with whom it seems we Maltese have bonded quite well are the French Socialist members of the European Parliament.

Apart from helping brush up my French, meeting these friends gives me an insight into what is really going on at the moment in the country that is one of the founding fathers of the European Union.

French public opinion seems to be inclined towards voting against the ratification of the European Union Constitutional Treaty, even though the latest polls appearing in Le Parisien show that the margin has narrowed.

It goes without saying that some of the most interesting debates are between Socialist colleagues from both the oui and non camps, each explaining the motivations for their campaign.

The more I ask and the more I listen, the more I am confirming my impression that the French referendum seems to be about everything but the Constitutional Treaty.

It was back in February when the non camp reversed the trend in the previous surveys. It was then that they started pressing hard on the Services Directive. The French feel that this extremely liberal directive, advocating a nearly universal application of the country of origin principle in the provision of services, could lead to social dumping and the erosion of their employment conditions. President Jacques Chirac reacted by luring his colleagues in the European Council to stand firm against the directive, even though the ball is really in the European Parliament's court.

But it seems that Mr Chirac's stand came too late in the day to be convincing enough. The EU governments have stood still doing nothing against this directive drafted by former Commissioner Frits Bolkestein for far too long, with the only group actively campaigning against it being the European Socialists. The Commission was inflexible in its approach. If the French vote against the Constitutional Treaty, which is fully supported by the Commission, it might as well be argued that one of the main culprits was the Commission itself with its over-zealousness in trying to push this directive down people's throats.

Then there is the Turkish issue. As in many member states, French public opinion is against Ankara's membership in the European Union. Many are, erroneously, linking the Constitutional Treaty to Turkey's membership. Mr Chirac tried to pre-empt this factor by pledging that France will hold a referendum on Turkish membership once negotiations are concluded. Despite this fact, far-right nationalists led by Jean Marie Le Pen are still using Turkey as one of their key arguments in the referendum debate.

Another crucial factor is the division within the French Socialists, where a considerable minority of parliamentarians are canvassing against the treaty despite the fact that the party's congress largely favoured it.

It appears that the not-so-well-hidden agenda behind this division is the choice of a Presidential candidate for the post-Chirac era. Socialist leader Francois Hollande has a strong party base but his nomination chances would be severely dented if the treaty does not go through.

In this case, former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius might emerge as frontrunner. Nevertheless, the largely pro-treaty congress members would find it difficult to endorse Mr Fabius following this campaign. Thus, someone at the margins could take their place, possibly some new name. Others do not exclude a comeback by Lionel Jospin, who is staying at the fringes of the pro-Constitutional Treaty camp. A similar stand is being taken by the likely Gaullist Presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkosy on the other side of the political spectrum.

Finally, there is the Chirac factor. Many French electors are interpreting the referendum as for or against the policies of the Gaullist President and his government. There is widespread social malaise in France. Unemployment is on the increase and there are many problems in the offing.

It is very difficult for many electors, especially Socialists, to digest the fact that they would have to vote for what Mr Chirac wants, even though their own Socialist Party wants it too. They would love to see Mr Chirac lose, especially after they had to vote for him in the last Presidential elections when once again Socialist divisions led to a victory of the French right.

Whatever happens, the Socialist Party, which at the moment clearly enjoys a majority in France, stands to lose if after this campaign it does not manage to get its act together and convince both oui and non activists to work together for the general and Presidential elections.

They all remember the last elections.

That might just happen again if they focus on what divides instead of what unites them.

Mr Muscat is a Labour member of the European Parliament.

www.josephmuscat.com