Poland get the honour of opening Euro 2012 today against surprise 2004 winners Greece but it would take a major upset to see either team or co-hosts Ukraine progress as far as the July 1 final in Kiev.
Instead, few people would disagree with UEFA president Michel Platini, who has predicted a repeat of the 2008 Spain-Germany final, as a major football champion-ship goes behind the former Iron Curtain for the first time.
Holders and world champions Spain arrive aiming for an unprecedented three titles in a row for a European country, while Germany are intent on avenging their defeat in 2008 and two years later in the World Cup semi-final.
But some believe that La Roja’s fluid passing game that has worn down opponents in the past is vulnerable.
Vicente del Bosque’s side is also missing talismanic defender Carles Puyol and all-time record scorer David Villa through injury, while question marks remain over the form of Chelsea striker Fernando Torres and Puyol’s Barca central defence partner Gerard Pique.
Germany, for their part, have looked like the natural heirs to the Spanish crown after a young and vibrant Mannschaft impressed at the 2010 World Cup and qualified for Euro 2012 with a perfect record.
Friendly defeats at home to France in February and in May to Switzerland, though, have raised last-minute doubts.
Questions have also been asked about whether the team’s Bayern Munich stars have the mental strength to pick themselves up not only from their Bundesliga and German cup final defeats to Borussia Dortmund but also the Champions League loss to Chelsea.
Should either Spain or Germany fail to shine, the Netherlands are obvious candidates to take advantage and add a second Euro title to the one they won in 1988.
The Dutch have no shortage of class but, as in previous major tournaments, they have a tendency to self-destruct. This time round, coach Bert van Maarwijk’s decision to play one up front could be the spark for dissent in the Oranje camp.
Van Maarwijk has chosen Arsenal striker Robin van Persie over Schalke 04’s Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, who top scored in the Bundesliga last season with 29.
“I already said that I am disappointed and angry,” said Huntelaar after the squad’s first training session in Poland.
“Now I prefer to shut up and to continue to train hard.”
Any discord could be fatal in the so-called “Group of Death”, opening the door to out-of-form Portugal or solid, if unspectacular, Denmark.
Of the others, injury-hit England for once travel with such low expectations in Roy Hodgson’s first campaign in charge that even making the quarter-finals could be hailed as a success.
They face two-time Euro champions France who arrive on the back of a 21-game unbeaten streak and with genuine hopes that they can go far in the tournament.
Certainly they should aim to avoid making it three straight tournaments where they have failed to negotiate the group stage and for Platini they are the dark horses, though, ghosts of the 2010 World Cup debacle still loom large.
“I think they’re a team that people will have to watch – if they get off the bus,” he joked, referring to the farcical scene when in 2010 they went on strike and refused to train.