After more than two years of fighting in Syria that has killed over 80,000 people the situation is getting completely out of hand and continues to get more and more complicated day by day. The whole region risks being destabilised, horrendous atrocities are being committed regularly by both sides, thousands of refugees have fled to Turkey and Jordan, President Bashar al-Assad has shown no sign of stepping down, there have been clashes between pro- and anti-Assad factions in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, claims have been made about the use of chemical weapons and fighters with links to al-Qaeda have increased within the rebels’ ranks. To make matters worse the international community appears both spineless and gutless in dealing with this terrible crisis.
US President Barack Obama has not shown much leadership in the Syrian crisis
Russia and China continue to veto any meaningful action being taken by the United Nations; we have now moved beyond any hope of the UN playing a constructive role in stabilising the country. Moscow, meanwhile, continues to arm the regime in Damascus and recently sent advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria. Both Russia and China bear a heavy responsibility for allowing the situation to deteriorate and will play a heavy price for their blind support for the regime in Damascus.
Earlier this month Israel carried out a third air strike on Syria, hitting targets in and close to Damascus in what was believed to be an attempt to stop a shipment of Iranian missiles to Hizbollah in Lebanon. Last week, Israeli and Syrian forces exchanged fire across the ceasefire line in the occupied Golan Heights.
It gets worse: According to the head of the Israeli air force Israel is poised for a large-scale assault on Syria to prevent advanced weapons falling into the hands of jihadi rebels or Hizbollah, should President al-Assad be toppled.
Major-General Amir Eshel told a security conference in Tel Aviv last Wednesday: “If Syria collapses tomorrow we could find ourselves very quickly inside this cauldron, and on a very large scale, because this enormous arsenal is parked there, just waiting to be looted, and could be turned against Israel. We may find ourselves having to take action, on a very broad scale, within a very short period of time.”
Hizbollah is already heavily involved in this conflict and has sent thousands of its members to Syria to fight alongside Syrian government forces. In fact, rebel forces have called for help to combat what they call an ‘invasion’ by the Lebanese Shi’ite militia, which is funded and armed by Iran. Hizbollah’s active support for Assad runs the risk of turning Syria’s conflict – in which mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are fighting against an Alawite-led (an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam) army – into a regional sectarian war.
Is there any hope for Syria as it descends into chaos? Both the Syrian government and opposition agreed to attend talks in Geneva next month – organised by Washington and Moscow – aimed at resolving the conflict. This is welcome and the international community must double its efforts to find a diplomatic solution to this crisis. But diplomacy alone will probably not achieve much, and although June’s talks are positive it is doubtful anything concrete will be achieved.
The US, Nato and the EU need to play a more active role in resolving this conflict, even though there are risks involved. However, just hesitating and watching from the sidelines is no option because the situation is going to get worse.
The ethnic cleansing of non-Alawites will continue and Assad could well end up in control of an area from Damascus to Homs, including the coastal and mountain Alawite strongholds. Most of Syria will become a failed state, the Islamic radical elements in the opposition will gain in strength and Syria will become a breeding ground for international jihadists. The plight of Syria’s Christians, which make up 10 per cent of the population, and which the West seems to have forgotten, is also a matter of great concern
It is now time for two things: a Nato-enforced no-fly zone, with or without UN Security Council backing, to neutralise Assad’s air force, and the arming of the non-jihadist rebels. On Tuesday, in fact, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to provide arms to moderate members of the Syrian opposition – this now has to be approved by the House of Representatives.
The US is urging the EU to accept a British and French plan to amend the EU arms embargo on Syria, which is due for renewal on June 1 and is to be discussed by the bloc’s foreign ministers in Brussels tomorrow. It is likely that the ban will be renewed but in such an eventuality Britain and France should find a way to get arms to the moderate rebels. The jihadist rebels are well funded and armed, and it is in nobody’s interest for them to win this war.
US President Barack Obama has not shown much leadership in the Syrian crisis and he needs to do so as soon as possible. His cautious approach, due to past events in Iraq and Afghanistan, are understandable to a certain extent, but he needs to put the situation into perspective.
Nobody is asking for US ground troops in Syria, but there is still a lot Obama can do. After all, he took the right decisions in Libya (which were easier to take than in Syria), and his efforts paid off. He should urge Nato to enforce a no-fly zone in Syria, which would be a good first step, and he needs to arm the Syrian moderate rebels, while at the same time intensifying his diplomatic efforts, and urging Russia to play a more constructive role in this very dangerous crisis.