What would you consider to be the three main climate change issues that Malta is currently facing?

The main challenge on climate is undoubtedly the mustering of the right dose of political will that systematically enables the much-needed shift towards a low-carbon economy that relies as minimally as possible on conventional fossil fuel.

The overall way forward in this regard is already fairly clear: by its energy roadmap the EU aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions across the bloc to the extent of somewhere between 80 and 95 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2050. Malta cannot stay out of the loop and indifference to such a scenario is certainly not an option.

While adapting to climate change remains possible, this obviously comes at a price which however increases substantially unless nation states implement the right mitigation measures

Firstly, Malta urgently needs to modernise its antiquated power generation systems to operate on low-carbon mode. This shall be accomplished by a shift to natural gas firing. Coupled to this, there is the need for a stronger drive on renewable energy particularly given Malta’s EU commitments on the line of the 10 per cent target by 2020. The energy sector is also about transport: more sustained efforts that should lead to more sustainable transport modes would definitely do no harm.

Secondly, Malta needs to act fast to implement all the necessary measures that can guarantee maximum efficiency in the management of water resources. The geophysical and climate characteristics of our islands render water, by nature, a strategic resource. We have all heard about the overuse and abuse of water in Malta for many years. As a consequence of an envisaged hotter Mediterranean, one of the longer-term climate change impacts is expected to be an increase in our islands’ dependence on artificial means of water production. Apart from obvious strategic considerations, reverse osmosis technology is expensive to maintain and produces a carbon footprint. This is no matter to be taken lightly.

Thirdly, it has to be recognised further that given Malta’s status as a small island state, we are inevitably at the receiving end in terms of global climate change impacts. The same applies to all other small island nations that are already manifesting a degree of concern about sea level rise issues.

Malta should therefore be staunchly active in all fora, EU and international, to ensure that global action on the phenomenon – both on mitigation and adaptation – does not risk relegation to the political backburner at any time and irrespective of all other economic considerations. After all, the biggest dimension of climate change is economic.

In general, what will be the impact of climate change on Malta?

Global climate impacts will vary from place to place. The reliability of projections and forecasts depends a lot on the extent to which the techniques of modern science bring about the required refinements of sophisticated computer models that enable us to study the global climate system in a rational way.

In practice, as far as Malta is concerned, it is more reliable to argue in terms of what is expected at the level of the Mediterranean region rather than resolving to the relatively minute scale of local terrain. The Mediterranean is expected to become significantly hotter and drier in the next few decades and at this point in time there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about how our islands could be impacted as a result of the dynamics of mean sea level fluctuations in the region. Hotter climates can only be expected to bring about a higher propensity of, say, the spread of certain disease, the consequences of which clearly also have an economic dimension.

Hotter, drier climates will also impact on biodiversity in a multitude of ways, not least in the possible disruption of the natural cycles of organisms, coupled to an enhanced liability for vegetative cover to burn and hence habitat destruction. The ecological dimension of climate change with respect to our islands certainly requires further study.

The concern of meteorologists is about the response to climate change in terms of the incidence and severity of extreme weather events. This includes heat waves, droughts, flooding and heavier precipitation. Elsewhere in Europe and North America there is also rising concern about cold waves and blizzards. Coping with these events comes at a price, not just economic but also human life.

The EU has recently responded with the recent launch of its Adaptation Package on climate that further addresses the need to act in view of vulnerability to natural disasters, taking into account a number of aspects such as insurance coverage matters. Several reports, including a recent one published by the World Bank, highlight that while adapting to climate change remains possible, this obviously comes at a price which however increases substantially unless nation states implement the right mitigation measures to combat the phenomenon.

From an economic perspective the question arises about how climate change may be expected to impact on Malta’s tourism industry. Would hotter summers make Malta less attractive as a summer tourist destination? Possibly yes. And how should Malta react now and in the future given the likelihood that an altered climatology of the region is expected to force substantial geographical shifts in the tourism industry to favour Northern European countries perhaps at the expense of the south, particularly the Mediterranean? How are the Maltese stakeholders in tourism responding to the eventuality that the islands’ industry would probably need to rely more heavily on the present off-peak shoulder months to survive under a hotter Mediterranean scenario?

What is the level of greenhouse gas emissions in Malta and what challenges does this pose?

Malta’s greenhouse gas emissions are obviously an insignificant fraction of the EU and global totals. According to the latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report for Malta very recently submitted to the UNFCCC, Malta’s total greenhouse gas emissions for 2011 stood at 2961.52 Gg CO2 equivalent. This amounts to somewhere close to three million tonnes which is obviously miniscule compared to total emissions from the bigger, wealthier economies in Europe and beyond.

The State of the Environment Indicators Report 2010 – 2011 states that Malta’s greenhouse gas emissions seem to have stabilised in recent years – however, this does not necessarily mean Malta is experiencing the beginning of a downward trend as a result of conscious aggressive action by the local players, not least the general public, to cut down on emissions. It is more probable that this stabilisation has occurred in response to the weakened global economic scenario that has clearly influenced the Maltese economic environment.

Acting on climate now

Malta is usually credited with having catalysed the climate debate at United Nations level way back in 1988. But in stark contrast, Malta’s greenhouse gas emission releases have soared by 49 per cent between 1990 and 2010, two decades of unprecedented economic growth.

To add further to the paradox, this has coincided with an escalation of initiatives at both EU and international level specifically designed to combat the phenomenon. The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio that had brought about the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992 UNFCCC) followed by the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 were tailor-made prescriptions to the world nations to act tangibly on climate and cut down on emissions within stipulated timeframes. Malta is party to both.

Furthermore, the last decade also witnessed the launch of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme Directive, an innovative mechanism that led to the birth of a unique carbon market.

Despite the present difficulties with Europe’s carbon price, this formula paves the way to the future of carbon emissions management not just in Europe but also far beyond. The EU’s recent adoption of its Climate and Energy legislative package is perhaps the latest move in the right direction.

Malta’s power generation plants operate under a greenhouse gas emissions capping system as required by the EU ETS. Other sectors such as transport also have their greenhouse gas emissions capped and are expected to adhere to a set of targets under the Effort Sharing Decision. It is probable that Malta’s toughest challenge will be to keep greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector under check – however, in the end it is not just a matter of honouring our EU and international law obligations.

Mitigating action on greenhouse gases brings no regrets given the human health threats that arise from prolonged exposure to fossil fuel exhaust emissions. For this to be possible the active involvement of all sectors of the economy – power generation, transport, water conservation, agriculture, tourism, waste management and education – is a must.

Eurostat estimates published in the last few days are food for thought: whereas CO2 emissions from energy use for the EU27 are expected to have decreased by circa 2.1 per cent for 2012 as compared to 2011, Malta’s trend for the same period appears to be grim with a staggering 6.3 per cent increase. It is not simply a matter of a substantial shift to greenhouse gas emissions free alternative energy having been achieved – macroeconomic and climatic trends, particularly the mild winter of 2011, have definitely influenced energy consumption patterns across Europe and hence the overall emissions reduction trend. With Malta however, it is amply clear that there has hardly been any decoupling between economic growth and fossil fuel dependence – emission-wise we have not really been leading by example.

Malta’s greenhouse gas emission releases have soared by 49 per cent between 1990 and 2010

What are Malta’s main policy frameworks on climate change?

Malta is addressing climate change on its two fronts – mitigation and adaptation.

Climate mitigation policy is about measures designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by all sectors of the economy. Formally approved by parliamentary consensus in September 2009, Malta’s action plan on mitigation consists of 96 measures covering aspects that range from conventional and renewable energy supply and demand management, transport issues, the abatement of emissions from agriculture, water, the economics of climate change and its integration into the national policy dimension to, vitally, what needs to be done to secure public participation on climate change. The action plan has been formulated to be implemented by 2020.

The role of the energy sector is pivotal in this regard. The urgency to restructure the islands’ conventional power generating facilities to operate on natural gas certainly goes far beyond political rhetoric or the specific aim to lower utility bills – no national climate mitigation policy can ever be taken seriously unless Government commits itself to adopt the most efficient low carbon technology. With the overhaul in operations at the Delimara power station plus decommissioning of the Marsa plant that shall be substituted by cable interconnection with Sicily, and coupled to several initiatives to revamp Malta’s progress with renewable energy, a sustainable reduction in Malta’s carbon footprint should be achieved.

The articulation of Malta’s climate change adaptation policy came in the aftermath of mitigation. Malta needs to act to counter the climate challenges it is already facing now. An action plan with 72 measures covering sustainability, water, agriculture, human health and tourism issues is already in place – this puts public communication and education on climate high up on the agenda. The need to increase public recognition that it pays to act on climate now is considered a priority. The adaption strategy provides the stimulus for establishing institutions such as a National Climate Change Consultative Council and reinforcing existing structures such as the Malta Resources Authority, apart from postulating on the possibility of the setting up of a Climate Change Adaptation National Emergency Fund. Very clearly, the role of these institutional set-ups will have to be viewed in the context of major reforms such as MEPA’s.

That Malta’s climate adaption strategy is yet again strongly directed towards addressing water management issues should come as no surprise – the challenges that we face with water as a strategic resource are well known.

There is an over-arching rationale to Malta’s climate policy: that the challenges we face with climate change can offer us a unique opportunity to diversify the Maltese economy into one that is more sustainable, from brown to green. It is up to us to rise to the occasion.

Mr Pulis specialises in environmental management and is personal adviser on climate change to the Minister for Sustainable Development, the Environment and Climate Change.