I was particularly struck by news reports over the Christmas period that in the Gulf only water can be more precious than oil and that Arab leaders were taking steps to protect their supply from possible sabotage by extremist militants or attacks by other potential foes.

While in Malta water continues to take centre stage in the local debate in combating climate change and also due to its ever growing shortage of supply, in the nearby Middle East it has come to assume the importance of a key and pivotal strategic resource.

Some have even speculated that the real wild card for political and social unrest in that area over the next two decades is not war, terrorism or revolution but it is water.

Its potential exhaustion not only threatens existing political balances but has also been defined as “the true game changer” in Middle Eastern politics.

Particularly in that area, water has no substitutes and, while cheap in its natural state, water is expensive to process and transport.

Groundwater depletion will have a range of consequences for how Middle Eastern governments function and manage relationships with the governed.

Migration is not excluded as one of the major problems, arguably triggering the whole notion of “climate refugees” about whom I have long advocated the need for an international convention. Possibly even at UN level. A combination of government action and inaction has shaped the Middle East’s water problems and only decisive government action can prevent them from causing a sudden upheaval.

It is no secret that the Middle East is a water scarce region. Of the 15 most water poor countries in the world, 10 are in the Middle East.

An additional five Middle Eastern countries are well below the UN’s water “poverty line” of 1,000 cubic metres per person per year. On a world map of water scarcity, the Middle East is the largest region in which water demand outstrips supply.

During EMPA conferences I recently attended, parliamentary delegates from Jordan, Syria and even Lebanon all complained of regular water supply shortages in their daily lives, with others expecting the problem to get worse before they can ever hope to see it get better.

Potential wars over shared rivers are a growing reality, even more so because the great threat is not across borders but often within them.

Scholars have long understood the connection of water to issues of security. I still vividly recall Shimon Peres, then vice president of the Socialist International repeatedly speaking of the water dimension when addressing various congresses and conferences of the International.

The worst is when certain governments’ security calculations are fundamentally inward looking and decisions that truly matter are the ones that have to do with politics not diplomacy.

In many instances, governments merely respond to the problem rather than plan to address it. The economics of water is hardly ever given the attention it deserves even in certain countries devoted to the linked processes of desalination and electricity generation.

What makes the Middle East so different from other regions is not only the scarcity of water but also the fact that in that region agriculture now accounts for 65-90 per cent of national water consumption across the whole region.

Problems end up exacerbated further when one realises water used in agriculture comes from underground aquifers that cannot be replenished.

Governments remain persuaded by the notion that the more water they provide, the more prosperous they will be. As they dig new groundwater wells and build more desalination plants, the wrong perception grows more than ever that water is what it is not: an infinite resource. If anything, it is finite and has no substitutes.

In Algeria, severe water shortages in 2002 had caused riots in several towns that destroyed government buildings and vehicles.

For many in the region water remains a more problematic commodity than food and fuel.

When I spoke earlier of water linked migration this is no over the top apocalyptic scenario. On the contrary, because groundwater depletion is permanent, people forced to migrate in search of water will have reason to believe their governments have failed in a fundamental way, thus, having reason to doubt the durability of any proposed solutions to the problem.

It would be a mistake to dismiss the whole Middle East area as oil rich nations with more than enough resources to desalinate as much water as they would like to. And perhaps even more than needed. Some countries – best left unmentioned – lack the funds and the geographical convenience to desalinate seawater for drinking let alone to pump it far inland.

In the final analysis, groundwater depletion could threaten the way regimes manage themselves in addition to the way they manage their populations.

Ultimately, water scarcity will be important to every country in the Middle East as it will ultimately be in Malta where climate adaptation will go to prove both its quality and quantity stand to be affected, though in the region under review it will matter in different ways in different countries.

The time has come for leadership and political will to be shown. Thus, one can help frame water conservation in terms that citizens can understand and reward it with the kind of incentives to which they are accustomed.

There is one fine point on which one cannot afford to disagree. There is no time to wait.

brincat.leo@gmail.com

www.leobrincat.com

The author is shadow minister for the environment, sustainable development and climate change.