As the saying goes, there is no peace for the wicked - or anyone else, for that matter! After the world sustained a string of financial crises spanning over the last two years, coupled with all its unsavoury consequences, things seemed to be returning to some sort of normality in the first couple of months of this year. World trade was slowly finding its feet when something truly unexpected happened.
Suddenly, and totally out of the blue, early in March, Eyjafjallaokull, an ice-covered volcano situated in the sleepy far north of Iceland, stirred to life after 187 years. What first appeared as simply an interesting geophysical event turned out to be something much bigger with its ramifications still unclear to this very day. As the eruptions intensified, spewing ice, dense smoke and ash, it was clear that the effects were about to lead to an aviation disruption unseen since World War II and, to an extent, since September 11, 2001.
What makes this volcanic activity so disruptive to air travel and its attendant activities is the volcano's location directly under the jetstream and in the flight path of some of the Northern Hemisphere's most vital routes. The gigantic cloud of highly-abrasive ash was then carried over northern Europe disrupting the operations of some of the busiest airports in the world.
It became apparent that this concentration of ash could be very hazardous to aircraft. Not only does the ash hamper visual navigation but it is feared that the debris could even sandblast an aircraft's windscreen and jam the turbine engines of a jetliner forcing them to shut down. Since the ash cloud has been recorded, stretching over 2,000 kilometres from Iceland reaching as far south as Spain and northern Italy, the consequences to air travel are abundantly obvious.
This hazardous Icelandic volcano ash has so far compelled thousands of flights to be cancelled. It is estimated that the number of flights in European airspace is about 20,000 on any given day. The cancellation of most of these flights, especially in the weekend of April 17, forced over 100,000 flights to be abandoned. This brought about severe losses to airlines, estimated so far to reach about $1 billion. Clearly, there are other implications and the overall economic impact remains as yet unclear. Economists had predicted that the disruption would not significantly impact Europe's shaky recovery. But after a brief hiatus, the volcano again reared its head and further flights were cancelled up to a few days ago.
The disruption in air travel affects not only passengers but it also disrupts supply chains and wreaks havoc in procurement plans in an age of "just in time" distribution. Grounded air cargo can in some way be delivered through other means. This is not so when it involves mail and express delivery and perishable items. Should this phenomenon persist, the "knock-on" effects could push Europe back into recession. To boot, a neighbouring volcano, significantly larger than Eyjafjallaokull, could also start showing some activity!
Air travel and tourism play a significant part in Europe's gross domestic product. Therefore, such disruptions are clearly not welcome! Everyone involved is trying to react to a host of known and unknown variables that make measuring risk a difficult exercise. Since no-one can predict how the volcano reacts, the challenge is open to speculation.
So many miles away from this now notorious volcano and, yet, all this affects Malta as well. A prolonged activity of Eyjafjallaokull, even if sporadic, will bring no joy to our slowly recovering tourist industry. Up to 98 per cent of our tourists to Malta arrive by air. The five-day disruption in April cost the tourism industry almost 90,000 bed nights. Moreover, if the situation remains this fluid it could mean holiday makers could potentially arrange alternative destinations that avoid the use of air travel, opting for rail or cruise liners as suitable alternatives. This would be an unfair blow to a tourism industry which, after having coped with an extremely rough year in 2009, was hoping to make up for it this year. We cannot forget that some of the most affected airports by the volcanic ash crisis are located in countries from where the bulk of our tourists depart.
There is nothing much one can do when faced with such a situation other than wait and see. This seemingly anonymous volcano has revealed the fragility and complexity of our human activity based continuously on precarious assumptions and presumptions. Our forefathers had a notable saying in Maltese for this which, loosely translated, sums up the fact that no matter how much mankind plans, God and Mother Nature will override everything in the execution of their own mightier plans.
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