There seems to be a general feeling that by early next year the world economy will stop going downwards and stabilise, but it will be some while before there will be true economic growth, European Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton told The Times Business in an interview.
"We are in the beginning phase of the upturn," she said.
Baroness Ashton expressed cautious optimism about the global crisis and said: "I think the position we are now in is probably a stronger position than I would have dared to hope a few months ago. We have had a very severe financial and economic crisis and we are at the point where our financial institutions are stable, though there are still serious problems for many of them."
Visiting Malta for talks with government officials last Friday, the Commissioner said that she was beginning to hear reports that the initial signs of recovery are there "but we have some way off that because in the real economy we are still going to see job losses and businesses not managing to survive."
She said that trade was vital to drive the global economies and help get the world beyond this recession. It is crucial, she said, to get the message across very clearly that the best way to support the industry - besides giving them financial support through this recession - is to give them the resources to invest in the future, in order to help them trade and sell their goods successfully.
She said she got the impression that the new US Administration of President Barack Obama was really committed to free trade. Within the US Congress, however, there is a strong feeling that this is not trade at any price, but trade in the best interests of America.
"I'm hopeful that what we will see in the future is an America, for example, really pushing forward on the Doha Round and helping us to finish that process," she said.
She added: "I'm hopeful we'll get there. I'm not confident yet because America has to decide how to go forward - but I'm confident that they are serious about trying to do that."
The Commissioner said the 27 EU member states have a united position on Doha, pointing out that the way the EU works "is one of its great strengths".