Opec producers meeting today are almost certain to carry on pumping almost flat out to avoid pushing prices towards a $70 danger zone that could stunt world oil demand and economic growth.

For nearly two years, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been sitting pretty as high prices failed to quell rampant demand in top consumers the United States and China.

Most Opec ministers have said they see no reason to change output levels and lead exporter Saudi Arabia has said a cut would be counter-productive.

"Opec should not take any decision to decrease production because any such decision would be the main reason for price hikes," Ali al-Naimi told Al Hayat newspaper.

Analysts say the world can cope with prices around $60, but could flinch at a sustained level of $70.

"The impact of $60 oil prices in 2006 is very different indeed from the impact of high oil prices in the 1970s or 1980s," said Richard Batty of Standard Life.

"Energy is becoming a less important part of the global economy. Oil expenditure is currently about two per cent of US gross domestic product, one quarter of what it was in 1980."

But he said an upward shift of $10 a barrel for about two years would begin to bite, driving inflation about 0.25 per cent a year higher and paring growth by the same amount. Demand has been the main driver behind a rally that trebled oil prices from the start of 2002, but analysts say supply concerns are moving to the fore.

"The difference from the last couple of years is that supply fears are driving the market," said Mike Wittner of investment bank Calyon.

"The oil price surge has been led by demand rather than supply outages, so almost by definition, demand was not at risk of being hurt by these prices."

The US economy in the fourth quarter of last year grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate, its slowest pace for three years.

Most economists have forecast growth will bounce back, but recent data have been mixed. Opec President Edmund Daukoru told Reuters oil prices at $60 a barrel had little impact on economic health.

"The impact on GDP growth is minimal," he said. "Global GDP growth has been able to absorb the higher oil prices."

The concern for the group that pumps around a third of the world's crude is that supply fears that have supported the market this year will persist and force prices higher still.

Militants in Nigeria, who say they aim to bring supply to a standstill in the world's eighth biggest exporter, are expected to continue their campaign until after next year's presidential elections.

Top 10 oil consuming nations in 2005

The United States is by far the world's largest oil consumer, burning over three times as much as the second largest consumer China.

Global demand in 2005 stood at 83.3 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The US alone accounted for a quarter of total demand at 20.77 million bpd.

The following is a table of the world's largest oil consumers. Figures are in millions of barrels per day.

Consumption 2005
1. US 20.77
2. China 6.60
3. Japan 5.41
4. FSU* 3.81
5. India 2.63
6. Germany 2.60
7. Canada 2.28
8. Brazil 2.18
9. Korea 2.17
10. Mexico 2.05
All data is from the International Energy Agency for oil consumption in 2005.
¤ Russia accounts for the bulk of demand from the states of the Former Soviet Union. Russian demand in 2004 stood at 2.6 million bpd, according to the US Department of Energy.