North Korea is unlikely to respond militarily to planned U.N. sanctions for its nuclear test, although the possibility should not be completely dismissed, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates said.
The draft U.N. Security Council resolution, written by the United States and endorsed by the four other permanent members plus Japan and South Korea, aims to hit the North's meagre overseas finances and could be voted on by as early as Friday.
"I don't think that there has been a commensurate change in the posture of the North Korean military that would suggest an attempt to undertake operations," Gates told reporters as he arrived in Brussels for a meeting of NATO defence ministers.
But he said Pyongyang was so unpredictable that it was probably "not wise" to dismiss out of hand North Korean threats of military action.
A Russian foreign ministry source, quoted by Itar-Tass news agency, took a similar line, stating: "The resolution is being adopted in order to solve the problem, and not to whip up the situation.
"We don't expect any actions to follow, including from North Korea, that would lead to an escalation of tension."
But some analysts believe the resolution, if adopted, would draw sharp rebuke from the prickly North, which threatened to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile unless the Security Council apologises for punishing it for an April rocket launch widely seen as a disguised long-range missile test.
"This sanctions regime, if passed by the Security Council, will bite, and bite in a meaningful way," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, told reporters.
North Korea has been subjected to sanctions for years for military moves condemned by regional powers. Analysts are not sure if new measures will have much impact on the impoverished state, whose economy has only grown weaker since leader Kim Jong-il took over in 1994.
The U.N. draft "condemns in the strongest terms" North Korea's nuclear test last month and "demands that (it) not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology".
COMPROMISES
The end result reflected compromises to satisfy Chinese and Russian objections. Beijing and Moscow had opposed language in earlier drafts requiring all countries to inspect North Korean ships carrying suspicious cargo that might violate a partial U.N. trade and arms embargo.
In the latest version, the Security Council "calls upon" states to inspect suspicious sea, air and land cargoes, but does not demand it. Arms sales are one of North Korea's few sources of hard cash.
Beijing, the closest Pyongyang can claim as a major ally, is reluctant to accept any new sanctions that would significantly undercut its economic ties to North Korea or push an already weak economy into collapse.
"China feels in no position to push back hard, because North Korea has offered it nothing to fall back on. Nothing," said Shi Yinhong, an international security expert at China's Renmin University, in explaining why Beijing appears to be on board.
North Korea has angered the region and countries beyond in the past few weeks with missile launches, threats to attack the South and a nuclear test, prompting U.S. and South Korean forces to raise a military alert on the peninsula to one of its highest since the 1950-53 Korean War.
JOINT INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
The North has been able to obtain a steady flow of foreign currency from South Korean companies using cheap North Korean labour and land to make goods at the Kaesong industrial enclave, located just within the communist state.
North Korea held talks on Thursday with the South over the joint park, once hailed as a model of economic cooperation and now point of tension between the rival states. It asked for a four-fold increase in wages paid to its workers, which could enrich Pyongyang's coffers.
North last month said it was revoking all deals on wages, rent and fees paid there. Analysts said this was likely a bargaining ploy to squeeze more money out of the South, which pays wages and other fees directly to the North's government.
South Korea's defence minister said on Wednesday he saw the the North's military moves as being aimed at building internal support for Kim's government as the 67-year-old leader prepares for succession in Asia's only communist dynasty.
The North has been preparing to test-launch as early as this month a long-range missile that could hit U.S. territory and mid-range missile that can hit all of South Korea and most of Japan, South Korean officials have said.