Talk on ODZ development has been gathering momentum with the ‘American University of Malta’ serving as a catalyst. People are objecting more than ever before to continued unsustainable development and the consequent degradation of the environment.
But what does ‘sustainable development’ mean? To most people, it conjures up images of idyllic countryside, chirping birds and pretty flowers. But that’s not all it is. Sustainable development means meeting the needs of the present without sacrificing the needs of future generations.
It goes well beyond public parks and pristine land and cliffs. It is as much about urbanity, infrastructure and mobility, as it is about saving the countryside.
Many grumble that our island has turned into a permanent construction site. Honey-coloured terraced houses are being replaced by faceless concrete monsters. Our countryside is being eaten up to make way for roads, garages and flats. Our once serene and lovely piece of Mediterranean paradise is being Manhattanised.
While this may be hyperbole, some of it is undoubtedly true. But what is also true is that our population is growing. And it has been growing steadily since 1975, in spite of a declining birth rate.
Eurostat predicts that by 2050 the Maltese population will soar to 508,000, 100,000 more than 10 years ago. The same study says we will hit the 439,000 mark in 2015. Its estimate is not inaccurate: our population in 2014 was at least 429,000, with some putting it as high as 445,000. This is the effect of (mostly legal) immigration. Blame Schengen, blame the struggling EU economy, blame the conflicts in the Middle East, blame our multilingual populace: for whatever reason, we are becoming quite a magnet for migrants.
Not only has our population exploded but we have also witnessed an exponential increase in tourism arrivals: more than 1.8 million in 2015, compared to 1.1 million 10 years ago – and that’s excluding cruise liner arrivals. Blame low-cost airlines, blame English-language schools, blame Airbnb, blame MTA. Whatever the reason, more and more people want a taste of our cultural treasures and fantastic weather.
People are coming here in droves, some permanently, some temporarily, and this phenomenon, combined with an already large number of inhabitants, is putting a strain on our environment and infrastructure. Some call it overpopulation. Even at current levels, our roads and the public transport service can barely cope: buses are packed to the brim at all hours of the day and roads are perpetually clogged.
We could welcome all these foreigners and rejoice at the cosmopolitan transformation Malta is experiencing
Many people struggle to find a good place to rent, despite the mythology of oversupply. Both sale and rental prices are going up and the construction industry is booming.
Could this momentum come abruptly to an end? Absolutely. Some forecasts predict a steady decline in population within the next decade. But these studies also wrongly predicted a peak of 422,000, which they said would only be reached in 2025. They were way off the mark.
So can we really afford to risk basing our policies on the off- chance that this is just a short-term phenomenon and population and tourism figures will stabilise and dwindle before things get out of hand? Or are we going to develop a vision that can handle a worst-case scenario? We are faced with a choice: embracing the increasing urbanisation and cosmopolitan vibrancy, or introducing measures to curb it. Opting for the latter could mean limiting migration, which could entail withdrawing from Schengen and closing our borders, and maybe even getting Donald Trump to build a giant wall along our shores. It could alternatively mean limiting further development by, for instance, turning down hoteliers’ requests to add additional stories and banning all development on ODZ land.
We could instead welcome all these foreigners and rejoice at the cosmopolitan transformation Malta is experiencing. We could avoid further chaotic sprawl by intensifying the use of our existing urban landscape: taxing vacant buildings and incentivising the use of dilapidated ones are just two examples. Investing in alternative transport options like rail systems and bicycle lanes would alleviate congestion problems.
But will this even suffice?
Politicians push the idea that we need not choose between preserving our countryside and promoting development. They tell us that the two need not be in conflict. But they are, and we will witness this conflict exacerbate if population and tourism trends continue.
What do we do when we run out of space to build inside development zones while the population continues to skyrocket and tourism numbers continue to soar? Can existing development zones cater for an additional 100,000 people? What about 200,000? Where do we draw the line? Should we even draw the line, or are we okay with being one big island city-state like Singapore?
Whatever your position, this issue must be addressed. We can start by acknowledging that the projections are likely correct; that Malta may very well become home to over half a million people by the mid-21st century. The question is: are we prepared? And if not, what are we going to do about it?
Andrew Saliba has degrees in communications and law, and is a lifelong Marsascala resident.