Is the European Union getting cold feet over Turkey's bid to join the bloc? That is the impression I get, judging from the many recent statements on this question by various European leaders, as well as the French National Assembly's approval of a bill which would make it a crime to deny that Armenians were the victims of genocide.
There is no doubt in my mind that Turkey's EU membership bid is the biggest challenge that the Union faces today. Turkey is a large, poor Muslim country with a history of military coups and which still occupies northern Cyprus and refuses to recognise Nicosia.
Its ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, has Islamic roots and has been accused of slowing down both economic and political reforms. So there are definitely many challenges here. Integrating this country into the EU will not be easy, but as I have said many times the long-term benefits to both Ankara and the bloc will be huge.
Recently the European Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn, referred to those European leaders - such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy, as well as various Austrian politicians - who want to keep Turkey out of the EU and instead speak of a "privileged partnership" with the Union as being "irresponsible". He said that such statements were turning Turks against Europe.
Mr Rehn said those who advocated such an option for Turkey eroded the credibility of the EU, which declared Turkey to be an EU candidate country at the Helsinki December 1999 summit and which officially opened accession talks with Turkey last year.
He said that such talks gave the EU less leverage to seek reforms in the country. "It reduces the political incentive for reforms and causes a political backlash among ordinary Turks," he said. I totally agree.
The latest slap in the face for Turkey came as a result of the vote in the French National Assembly over making it a crime to deny that Armenians were the victims of genocide. President Jacques Chirac opposed this bill which anyway has to be approved by the French Senate. However, the vote has been interpreted by the Turks as proof that France no longer wants them to join the EU. Furthermore, one cannot overlook the fact that the vote came soon after Mr Chirac visited Armenia and declared that Turkish recognition of the Armenian genocide should be a pre-condition of Turkey's EU membership.
Both President Chirac's statement in Armenia and the vote in the French National Assembly are, in my opinion, acts of folly. How can anyone suddenly impose a new condition for joining the EU? Thankfully, Mr Rehn has rejected Mr Chirac's proposal, saying no such pre-condition exists. To enter the EU one has to adhere to the Copenhagen criteria, the rules - both political and economic - that define whether a nation is eligible to join, and no other criteria exists.
Of course Turkey should come to terms with its past, as other nations should do, but this should not be linked to joining the EU. Did Europe force the eight former Communist states to apologise for their past before they joined the EU? Many of the Eastern European ruling political parties are the successors of the dictatorial Communist parties that ruled the countries during the Cold War, yet this was not seen as an obstacle to EU membership. Should France and Britain, for example, now be forced to apologise for their colonial past or risk being thrown out of the EU?
Turkey needs to have an open and honest debate about the Armenian question, but the French vote is likely to cause the opposite effect - Turkey is a proud nation where Nationalist sentiment is strong. However, Turkey has, in my opinion, handled the Armenian question wrongly. For example, prosecuting writers who have used the term genocide to describe the killings of Armenians - as was done with Orhan Pamuk, who was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature last week - is clearly wrong.
Such laws need to be abolished by Turkey, and it is reasonable for the EU to demand this. However, the French vote making it a crime to deny that the Armenians suffered genocide is as unreasonable as the Turkish law which prevents writers using the word 'genocide' over this question. What is needed is for historians - not legislators - to arrive at a conclusion over what happened, and then for Turkey to come to terms with what took place in the last days of the Ottoman Empire, just before the creation of the modern Turkish Republic.
One can argue that the present Turkish government has slowed down its reform agenda, which will inevitably prolong its accession negotiations with the EU. However, I get the feeling that many European leaders are having second thoughts about Turkey's entry into the EU, mainly because they do not believe that Muslim Turkey, although secular, can fit into a largely Christian Europe.
This is what Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Denmark's Prime Minister, told me about Turkey when I interviewed him last month:
"They have slowed down their domestic reform process. I foresee certain problems with Turkey's accession negotiations, we can give no guarantee regarding the final outcome of these negotiations. It will depend partly on Turkey itself - whether it will fulfil the necessary requirements, and partly on the EU - whether it has the necessary absorption capacity. This is a long-term perspective and it will definitely take some years."
Somehow the tone of this statement suggests that Mr Rasmussen is not that keen on Turkey's EU entry. There is no denying that there are difficulties with Turkey's EU accession process, but one has to look at the global picture. If handled properly, Turkish EU membership could be a huge success story. It would greatly strengthen Europe's defence capabilities, consolidate Turkish democracy, serve as a bridge to the Muslim world, secure much needed energy supplies, contribute to peace and stability in the entire region, increase Europe's clout in international politics, strengthen Europe's multicultural society and open up a huge market for European businesses.
Europe should continue to criticise Turkey whenever necessary, without patronising it. However, it is crucial that Europe believes that, in principle, Turkey joining the EU is a good thing. It must certainly stop sending out negative signals to Turkey. There is too much at stake.