The debate over a bridge to Gozo has understandably looked at the environment impact it would cause, the impact of interfering with the undefinable ‘getting away’ feeling that comes from getting onto a ferry, as well as whether there should even be a bridge or a tunnel.
However, one aspect that is being overlooked is the cost of doing nothing.
The current three ferries operated by Gozo Channel are already 15 years old and have another 15 years of reasonable life left. Since the bridge has a 100 year life span, we are looking at replacing the ferries at least three times. Assuming that they would be replaced by something similar (and new, rather than second-hand), you are looking at an average of €15 million each, €135 million in all.
The ferries also require €6 million in staffing costs, as well as €3.5 million in fuel and €1 million for repairs and maintenance according to Gozo Channel’s financial report for 2011. Over a 100-year period, that works out to €1.05 billion taking the most simplistic view that these costs would remain the same. So just keeping the ferry service going would cost us €1.19 billion.
Gozo Channel in 2011 brought in €12 million in tickets and other revenue, which would translate into €1.2 billion over 100 years, again assuming all remains the same.
On paper, this would mean breakeven. Of course, even if both costs and revenue increase, this is far from reality at the moment, because Gozo Channel made a loss of €2.6 million for the years ended 2012 and 2013, and will continue to do so until the current PSO expires.
Against this we have the bridge, which would cost €800 million to build, with €4 million for annual maintenance: total cost would be €1.2 billion.
What about revenue? Here we have to assume that the government would levy a toll on the bridge and, for the purposes of this argument, that it would be as much as the ferry, on the premise that people would be willing to pay as much as they do now but be spared the waiting time, the passage and the disembarkation, as well as the ability to cross to Gozo at any time of day and night.
What else will the bridge deliver that the ferries do not? Much is being made of the fact that it would be available in all weather, and even if the reality is that very few crossings are cancelled, for those stranded, even one is too many.
Would it increase the traffic? The Chinese consultants believe that it would, from around 3,000 vehicles a day to 5,500 by 2021. Part of that would come from natural growth but some would come from the additional ease of travel.
For example, 42 per cent of passengers leave their cars behind, and it is estimated that 40 per cent of them would take a car if there were a bridge.
Hotels will lose out because people could visit for the day and not stay over. Restaurants will win because it will be more feasible to pop over for dinner and drive home. Companies would be able to re-locate to Gozo because they would be able to tap into Gozitan as well as Maltese workers.
Gozitan workers and students could go home every night. Manufacturers would no longer face the hassle of transport – even if the costs remain the same.
Is this an argument in favour of the bridge? It is too complex to weigh up all the winners and losers – but at least let us look beyond the staggering original investment and compare it with the cost of the ferries over a 100-year period.