February may potentially become a decisive month for the Serie A and not only where the league title is concerned.
On Saturday, defending champions Juventus edged Napoli 1-0 in Turin to complete their remarkable comeback and shoot to the top of Serie A for the first time this season.
Juve’s 15th straight win coincided with Napoli’s first defeat after a nine-match positive run (one draw and eight consecutive victories).
If Juventus overcome Bologna at the Dall’ Ara Stadium next Friday and then beat Inter the following weekend, Massimiliano Allegri’s side would equal Inter’s record of 17 wins in a row established in the campaign of 2006/07.
Juve’s one-point lead in Serie A could also widen this month given that Napoli have two tricky matches coming up – against Milan at home next Monday and away to Fiorentina the following week.
Fiorentina beat Inter with a last-gasp goal on Sunday to move to third place on 49 points, seven adrift of Napoli.
Unless Juventus or Napoli (or both teams) experience a significant dip in form and results, these two sides are expected to represent the country in the 2016/17 UEFA Champions League.
That leaves only one slot available for Serie A sides in Europe’s top competition for clubs next season.
As things stand, four teams are in contention for third place which guarantees access to the third qualifying round of the tournament in summer.
Fiorentina are currently enjoying a two-point lead over fourth-placed Roma. Inter, Serie A leaders up to less than two months ago, are fifth with 45 points, two clear of city neighbours Milan.
With 39 points still up for grabs, it is anyone’s guess who will finish third at the end of the campionato.
Inter, who only managed nine points from their last nine games (two wins and three draws), are experiencing a freefall.
Before the Christmas recess, Roberto Mancini’s side led the standings ahead of Fiorentina and Napoli.
At that juncture, Juventus were three points adrift and Milan eight behind.
But then Inter became rather vulnerable at the back and conceded 13 goals in their last nine outings. Before the negative sequence began, goalkeeper Samir Handanovic had only let in nine goals from 16 outings.
Inter’s prospects
Even worse, Inter have already had eight red-carded players this season – the highest since season 1995/96.
The Nerazzurri have two winnable games at home coming up when facing Sampdoria and Palermo.
In between, they travel to Turin to take on leaders Juventus. Failure to claim points from these three games, will continue to diminish Inter’s chances of a top-three finish.
Meanwhile, a seven-match positive streak (four wins and three draws) saw Milan revive their chances of finishing high up in the Serie A ladder at the end of the season.
Milan’s next match is away to Napoli before hosting Torino at the San Siro. Back-to-back away fixtures at Sassuolo and Chievo leave Milan with little space for error, particularly in view of their current six-point deficit with Fiorentina.
Since the turn of the new near, Paulo Sousa’s Viola registered four wins and two draws. However, they went down to Lazio (1-3) and Milan (0-2) and could rue the loss of those points come May.
A tricky away fixture against Atalanta awaits Fiorentina on Sunday.
Atalanta are proving to be a tough nut to crack for any side so it will not be straightforward for Fiorentina to conquer Bergamo.
On February 29, Fiorentina host Napoli in a clash that could shed more light on the Florence side’s aspirations to finish third. A make-or-break away fixture at Roma follows on March 4.
Roma have shown signs of progress with Luciano Spalletti on the bench.
After a stuttering start to his second stint at the Olympic Stadium – a home draw with bottom side Verona and a 0-1 defeat to Juventus – Spalletti led his men to four wins (vs Frosinone 3-1, Sassuolo 2-0, Sampdoria 2-1 and Carpi 3-1).
Roma’s next two games are against Palermo (home) and Empoli (away). Indeed, on current form, the capital club seem to be in a strong position to make it six wins in a row.
And with 10 games remaining, an eventual home win against Fiorentina would place Spalletti’s Roma in a prime position to finish third.