Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) attends a wreath laying ceremony to mark the Defender of the Fatherland Day at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin walls in central Moscow yesterday. Photo: Reuters

President Vladimir Putin faces a decision over Ukraine that is likely to shape his political legacy as well as the future of Russia’s western neighbour, trapped in an East-West battle that has echoes of the Cold War.

President Viktor Yanukovych’s loss of power deprives Putin of an ally vital to his hopes of keeping Ukraine, the cradle of Russian civilisation, in what he sees as Russia’s orbit.

His hopes of building a huge trading bloc, grouping as many former Soviet republics as possible to challenge the economic might of China and the US, could be in tatters.

But making a stand over Ukraine, or getting drawn into a new bidding war with the EU to win sway over the cash-strapped country, would be risky.

Moscow can ill-afford to improve the $15 billion financial bailout package it offered in December. But more forceful measures, such as taking over mainly Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine, would risk triggering a more serious conflict.

Putin is saying nothing for now in public, although he has spoken by phone to US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He was especially keen to stay silent before the end of the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

But the protesters on Independence Square in central Kiev are waiting anxiously to see what he does.

“We all know Putin likes to meddle,” said Alexei Tsitulski, a 25-year-old protester from the Crimea. The region used to be Russian territory and was given to Ukraine in 1953 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who was from Ukraine.

“If he decides to try to take over regions like Crimea or anywhere else in the east, we’ll go there to fight. We’re not going to let Ukraine be split.”

Such comments, echoed by other protesters, underline how high the stakes are as Putin looks for ways to save face in the geopolitical struggle over Ukraine that had appeared to be going his way until the past week.

The US also said yesterday that sending forces to Ukraine would be a “grave mistake”.

Putin won what seemed a decisive victory last November when Yanukovych spurned deals that would have forged closer trade and political ties with the EU. He opted to rebuild economic relations with former Soviet master Moscow instead.

The cost was high. Russia agreed a $15 billion bailout package with heavily indebted Ukraine and promised a reduction in the price Kiev pays for Russian gas.

But Yanukovych’s fall from grace puts it in doubt. Opposition leaders and many of the Kiev protesters favour closer ties with Europe.