It was sad to be confined to bed at the start of a new year! Listening to the news, watching TV or reading the paper doesn’t bring any comfort at all, especially when you learn that we began 2012 with a defiant “no surrender” message from the regime in Iran, and this after months of rising tensions with the US and the West.
Fears of a titanic clash in the Strait of Hormuz, which allows for the free flow of goods and services through this narrow sea passage, are creating an uncertain future for peace in the world. A top Iranian official was quoted as saying that Tehran would close the Strait if America and Europe proceeded with plans to curtail Iran’s oil exports because of its nuclear programme... and they sure mean business!
Who is going to resolve this threat to world peace? Barack Obama? Angela Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy? So far, Iran’s allies, namely China and Russia, have kept a low profile but the US military have responded to this threat by declaring that such a move would be met by force. On the other hand, Britain, France and Germany dismissed this warning from Tehran as rhetoric and insisted that they would not be deterred from their combined efforts to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
Staring at the ceiling engulfed in my thoughts, I thought I could hear Mr Obama and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad arguing over who is right and who is wrong:
Ahmed: If sanctions are adopted against Iranian oil, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Obama: It is my duty to warn you that any disruption to the free flow of services which pass through the Strait will not be tolerated.
Ahmed: Then you must scrap your plans to impose new sanctions on us.
Obama: The free flow of goods through the Strait is vital to regional and global prosperity.
Ahmed: We couldn’t care less...
Obama: Let me remind you that anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly ouside the community of nations.
Ahmed: You’d better abandon your plans for sanctions before we give you and your western allies a strong lesson to remember!
Obama: Your threat is sending the price of oil above $100 a barrel...
Ahmed: I told you, we could not care less. Shutting the Strait would be easier than drinking a glass of water!
Obama: Do you think so?
Ahmed: 100 per cent... Our navy has already started a 10-day war game in the Gulf of Oman testing torpedoes and mine-laying, etc.
Obama: Despite the threat your depleted navy and airforce are no match for our powerful Fifth Fleet... Besides, the economic cost to you would be huge... Remember, you too export crude oil through the Strait!
Happy New Year to all and to the hundreds of followers of The Times...