With two months left until votes are cast in the spring hunting referendum, recent polls show the result can still go either way.
A survey released on TVM programme Xarabank on Friday gave the No camp a nine point lead over the Yes camp whereas a Malta Today poll last Sunday put the Yes camp one point ahead.
A poll of polls carried out by The Sunday Times of Malta superimposed the survey results, taking into account the respective margins of error and identifying the overlapping ranges.
This analysis shows that support for the pro-spring hunting Yes vote ranged between 36 per cent and 41 per cent while the anti-spring hunting No vote’s support ranged between 39 per cent and 43 per cent. Although this analysis puts the No vote slightly ahead, the difference is solidly within any margin of error and much will depend on how the undecided will sway.
The number of undecided stood at 14 per cent and 13 per cent in the Xarabank and Malta Today surveys respectively.
It is this segment of voters both sides would want to target in the 62 days left until polling day on April 11.
The surveys were conducted in the last week of January and although the results differed, the margin of difference between the Yes and No camps in each of the polls fell within the respective margins of error.
However, while support for the pro-spring hunting lobby ranged between 30 per cent and 41 per cent in the Xarabank survey, this stood between 36 per cent and 44 per cent in the Malta Today poll.
The anti-spring hunting lobby would be happier with the Xarabank poll since it gave them a level of support that ranged between 39 per cent and 50 per cent. The Malta Today survey put the No vote range between 35 per cent and 43 per cent.
The wider ranges in the Xarabank poll result from a higher margin of error – almost six per cent – since the sample size was of 300 respondents. The Malta Today survey had a sample of 600, which cut down the margin of error to plus or minus four per cent.
Meanwhile, the pro-hunting lobby is expected to announce its referendum strategy on February 21, hunters federation president Joe Perici Calascione said on Xarabank.
He did not say whether the federation will instruct voters to boycott the referendum.
Voter turnout has to surpass the 50 per cent mark for the referendum to be valid. Only after this is ascertained are votes counted and a winner declared.