Various commentators worried by Europe’s identity crisis, its wobbly currency, creeping recession and potential contagion effect have denounced 2012 as a damned year. They see hard times ahead even though few seem bothered with Nostradamus’ prediction that the world will come to an end in 2012.
What seems sure is that 2012 will be another year of deep change- Joseph Vella Bonnici
Other observers are bullish and looking forward to the year of the Dragon, which is associated with power and riches.
Then there are those who follow the Mayan path in the belief that on December 21, 2012, Earth will enter a new age of positive physical transformation and spiritual awakening.
What seems sure is that 2012 will be another year of deep change. The shift of power to the East is expected to continue. The West is paralysed by self-doubt, which is eroding its world leadership.
Persistent financial and economic uncertainty present a unique opportunity for the West to reassess its obsession with consumerism, the here and now and market fundamentalism. Unfortunately, it lacks the political vision and will to change course.
Like statism, neo-liberalism has led to a flagrant abuse of power and greed. Cheap money and speculation have been fuelling globalisation, which, while creating a new sense of shared destiny and increased interdependence, has also generated deep cultural and economic divides, social emargination and poverty. Across, but also within, borders.
Increased globalisation calls for global governance. Christine Lagarde, who runs the IMF warns, that “the world risks sliding into a 1930s-style slump unless countries settle their differences and work together” (The Guardian, December, 15).
Is the threat of another Great Depression scaremongering or is there a lot of truth in it? After all, who is responsible to get countries to work together? What is the role of the IMF itself in all this?
Conceived in the post WW II as guardian of the international monetary system, the IMF is fast becoming a swim ring for the sovereign debt problems of the West. For long years, the IMF was shunned by the rich countries because of the stigma associated with its loans and by poor ones because of its insensitivity to social considerations. Now, rather than striving to create a much-needed global monetary system, the IMF is keener to distribute bailout money it does not have. So it will be borrowing money from the EU (€200 billion) to be able to lend money back to the EU (€500 billion).
This year will also mark the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Last November, during the climate change conference held in South Africa, general agreement was reached to create a new treaty to limit carbon emissions. The annual conference of the parties (COP) in 2012 will be held in Qatar.
Rio will once again host a key conference on sustainable development. Staged under the auspices of the UN, Rio+20 presents another chance for world leaders to come up with a comprehensive programme that acknowledges that our planet’s limited resources need proper conservation and protection. Sustainability, however, cannot be separated from economic issues and, in particular, poverty reduction.
On the political front, in 2012 there will be elections in the US, France, Russia, China and India (all UN Security Council and G20 members).
In China, nothing will change, while popular protests are unlikely to stop the return of Vladimir Putin (if one assumes that he had left). Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and Manmohan Singh are not so sure of keeping their post. In North Korea, Kim Jong-un, who is not yet 30, will be taking over from his father and the world will be watching closely for manoeuvres intended as a show of force and control over the military and the political elite.
Last month, after nine years, the US military withdrew from Iraq. It is still not clear what sort of state the Americans have left behind them and the real test for the Iraqis starts now. Also, over the next 12 months, US troops in Afghanistan will be cut by a third. The situation in this country is even more unstable and there is a constant fear that the country could at any time plunge into a civil war. Building state capacity to support democracy is not about changing flags or faces and tends to be a difficult and lengthy process.
Agence France-Presse (December 28) reports that “the euphoria sparked by the Arab Spring is giving way to disquiet over political instability and the growing influence of Islamists”.
The other country to watch in 2012 of course is Syria.
In 2012, London, will become the first city in modern times to officially host the greatest show on earth three times. This time, London is keen to create a new dimension to this sports event by introducing various cultural activities. Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, states that “as a values-based sports organisation, we can’t change the world on our own. But we can – and we do – help to make it a better place”.
As the world gets smaller, it becomes increasingly important that our leaders build on that which unites us. Yet, renewal has to start by each one of us making some real choices as to who we are, what we stand for and the sort of lifestyle we care about.
Let us hope that the Maya were right.
Happy New Year.
fms18@onvol.net