The Prime Minister faces a stark choice this Christmas as his one-seat parliamentary majority is put to the test again. But, according to former Nationalist Party secretary general Joe Saliba, an election is not an option.
In the next seven days, Lawrence Gonzi has to decide whether to split the Home Affairs and Justice Ministry or risk losing backbencher Franco Debono’s support in Parliament.
Mr Saliba is adamant that the electorate voted in the government for a five-year term and it should stay there.
“A solution has to be found but an election is not one of them,” he said, refraining from suggesting what the solution should be.
Although when addressing members of civil society at a reception on Wednesday evening Dr Gonzi was reported to have ruled out a general election next year – the election is due by mid-2013 – the latest developments have left little room for manoe-uvre.
Splitting the ministry, a move the Prime Minister has said could be considered, will undoubtedly create a negative backlash within his own party for having given in to the demands of an MP. It may also sour the relationship with Home Affairs and Justice Minister Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici, who is said to have been irked by Dr Gonzi’s declaration that splitting the portfolios will be considered.
These are considerations that will weigh heavily on Dr Gonzi’s mind as he tries to patch up the latest bout of dissent, which Dr Debono blames on the Prime Minister for having promised to split the portfolios by year’s end.
For some, an election is the only way out of this impasse.
Former Nationalist Minister Michael Falzon believes the Prime Minister is in a situation similar to the one former Labour Prime Minister Alfred Sant was in 13 years ago.
“Just like in 1998 Alfred Sant could not be held hostage by (former Labour Prime Minister and MP) Dom Mintoff, Lawrence Gonzi cannot be held hostage by Franco Debono and I do not see any other way out but an election,” Mr Falzon said. He noted that Dr Gonzi had been very cautious and bent over backwards over the past two years in dealing with dissent, but there was a limit to how far the Prime Minister could go to appease his MPs.
“Franco Debono should realise that he cannot dictate to the Prime Minister in this way unless there is a general mood of mistrust in the Prime Minister, which is not the case,” Mr Falzon said, adding the stability of the government should not be put at stake over this issue.
But others disagree an election is the only solution, even if it remains a possibility.
Columnist and former Labour minister Lino Spiteri believes there are other alternatives to an election, with the easiest way being a split in the Home Affairs and Justice Ministry.
“A way out would be for the Prime Minister, once he has had some time to consider the issue that he himself created when appointing the Cabinet, to split the ministry as should be done in accordance with the practice in most of the democratic world,” he said.
Combining both portfolios was wrong in principle, he added, and splitting them had nothing to do with the performance of the current minister “who is an upright person”.
“If the Prime Minister operates by the principle – splitting the home affairs and justice portfolios – that he himself finds acceptable, then I think the crisis will blow away,” Mr Spiteri said.
Acknowledging that any such move could be interpreted as having a negative impact on Dr Mifsud Bonnici, he insisted it should not be so.
Mr Spiteri believes that if the Prime Minister does not split the ministry an election would very likely be held “around mid-summer, if not earlier”.
The Prime Minister’s decision to go to the polls a year early would be based on the parliamentary majority at hand and the international economic situation that is likely to experience a downturn, according to Mr Spiteri.