On Thursday British voters will vote in a referendum to determine whether the UK is to remain a member of the European Union. It is an absolutely crucial vote, with far reaching implications not only for Britain, but also for Europe and the world.
I don’t believe the majority of Britons understand the importance of this referendum and most polls are sadly pointing to a victory for the Leave side, which has used emotion and the ‘blame game’ as central pillars of its campaign. A Brexit, which was once considered to be out of the question, is now a very real possibility, and the consequences of such a scenario will be dire for both Britain and Europe, but especially for the UK.
The arguments in favour of those campaigning to remain in the EU are crystal clear and logical. The benefits of Britain’s EU membership are obvious and plentiful: economic growth, job creation, lower prices, greater rights for employees, the right to live, work and study abroad, funding for the arts, science and the regions, environmental protection, greater security and a leading role for Britain in Europe and on the world stage, just to name a few.
The Remain bloc also has the overwhelming support of British economists, businesses, trade unionists, artists, scientists, health professionals and environmentalists. The experts at the IMF, the OCED, the Bank of England and the UK Treasury have said a Brexit would be very bad for the economy. The G7, the prime ministers of India, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, US President Barack Obama and all EU leaders have urged Britain to remain in the EU. Can all these people be wrong? Not one world leader, with the exception of Donald Trump, has urged the UK to withdraw from the EU. This speaks volumes.
In anticipation of a Brexit the pound has fallen sharply, £100 billion has been wiped off the markets, the FTS100 slipped below 6000 for the first time since February and European shares slumped to a three-month low. What is even more worrying is the fact that June 24, the day after the referendum, is expected to be the most volatile trading day on the markets in the last 25 years, obviously in the event of a Brexit. Does not this all matter to the electorate?
Why, in fact, does the Leave bloc seem to be leading in the polls? First of all, the British have never had a love affair with Europe even though the evidence is amply clear that they have done very well in Europe. A good number of Britons have simply not come to terms with the fact that the world has changed, the UK has changed and will never go back to what it once was and that the British Empire is no more. Thinking that Britain will become ‘great’ again if it leaves Europe – when it is already great precisely because of its EU membership – is absolute nonsense.
Furthermore, the Conservative Party, since Margaret Thatcher’s time in office, has been split down the middle over the issue of Europe, with its eurosceptic wing becoming more vocal over the years. The fact that many Conservative Party politicians have over the years made it a habit of blaming Brussels for all the country’s ills has certainly not helped and has obviously had an influence on the electorate.
The same, of course, can be said about much of the UK tabloid press, which for years have been publishing hysterical anti-EU articles which have given its readers a completely distorted view of the European Union. This, of course, has had a major impact on how voters view the EU, especially those who only get their news from this section of the media. Unfortunately, no serious attempt was ever made to counter this rubbish emerging from the tabloid press, and the country is now paying the price for this.
I don’t believe the majority of Britons understand the importance of this referendum
In reality, the Leave side led by people like Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage, have not given a clear answer on how the UK economy will cope with no access to the Single Market. Neither have they presented a credible economic plan for Britain outside the EU nor have they explained how a Brexit is favourable to being part of a united European stand when dealing with Islamist extremism and jihadist terrorism, relations with Russia, climate change, migration and nuclear proliferation.
The Leave camp, however, has been playing on people’s emotions, which is always easy to do, and on offering simple solutions to very complex questions, which is always easier to sell. They have blatantly lied about Britain’s contributions to the EU budget, about ‘taking back control’ of their country and about Turkey joining the EU.
The main issue of those wanting to leave the EU, of course, and the one which really strikes a chord with voters, is migration from EU countries. While numerous studies have shown that EU migrants are net contributors to the economy as they work and therefore pay taxes and social security contributions, the large influx of people into Britain from Eastern Europe has certainly put a strain on public services like health and housing and this has irritated many voters. However, while the Leave bloc makes the EU the scapegoat for this, it is really the fault of successive UK governments – principally Conservative-led ones – it is ironic that the Leave side is dominated by Conservative politicians – which have failed to adequately fund these public services.
A Brexit would not only be very bad for the UK but also for Europe. The EU would go through an institutional crisis, it would lose the world’s fifth largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a nuclear power and its global clout would be weakened (as would Britain’s). Europe’s anti-EU nationalist movements would be strengthened and there would be great uncertainly and volatility in the markets. Malta would lose one of its best friends in the EU, with whom it shares many common interests.
So, it is a hopeless case? The polls are not encouraging at all, but the odds are still in favour of Britain remaining in the EU. There are still a large number of undecided voters, however, who would could determine the outcome. The Labour Party is mobilising its voters to vote for the Remain camp – which could save the day – and on Thursday former prime minister Gordon Brown gave an excellent speech in Manchester urging voters to back staying in the EU.
Furthermore, the terrible murder of pro-EU Labour MP Jo Cox by someone who shouted “Britain First” while stabbing her might influence public opinion to vote for the UK to remain in the EU.
Prime Minister David Cameron, who is strongly urging a vote for the Remain side, took a huge gamble when he decided to call this referendum, which he irresponsibly did only for electoral gain and in an attempt to quell divisions within his Conservative Party over Europe.
Cameron could well go down in history, however, as the Prime Minister who not only presided over his country’s disastrous exit from Europe but also the disintegration of the UK – with Scotland and perhaps also Wales opting for independence and separate EU membership, the re-emergence of sectarian strife in Northern Ireland and a serious setback for the whole European project which has been so successful in maintaining peace, stability and prosperity in the post-war period.