Climatologist Adam Fenech. Photo: Jason Borg

Climate change is already being felt in Malta and policies need to be put in place now to address the situation, according to climatologist Adam Fenech.

He explains that while scientists talk about alterations in temperature some 30 years from now, the change is gradual and is already occurring. In Malta, the temperature has increased by almost one degree Celsius over the last 30 years.

Using a scientific model to predict future climate change on the island, Dr Fenech forecasts a further gradual increase of another two degrees by 2050.

The impact of such changes on the ecology and the economy cannot be easily predicted with accuracy, but what is certain is that the consequences would be significant.

“While the change seems small, the impact of such changes would be considerable. Malta needs to implement policies now to start addressing the creeping impacts of climate change. Start now and increase your efforts over time,” Dr Fenech advises.

He has worked extensively in the area of climate change since 1988, starting with the first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international body for the assessment of climate change under the auspices of the United Nations. Dr Fenech has extensive experience in research linking global climate models to local decision making. He is the director of the Climate Lab at the University of Prince Edward Island and is in Malta to address a conference on the subject organised by the University of Malta.

He explains that scientific models can now predict “the most likely future” a country and its people will face by looking at climate data from the past and projecting the findings to assess climate change.

“The increase in temperature is significant, dramatic and unprecedented,” Dr Fenech told this newspaper.

While temperatures will rise, rainfall is expected to decrease by some 12 per cent, which is significant when the aquifer is already in a critical state. This would imply more reliance on reverse osmosis plants that could potentially raise costs in terms of water production.

The predicted sea level rise could transform the landscape and affect buildings that are close to the sea in low-lying areas such as the Strand, in Sliema. The impact of sea level rise would be further compounded by strong winds and storm surges battering the coast.