Two weeks ago, the United Nations issued a mediated Libyan Political Agreement for consideration by all sides. Libya’s internationally-recognised parliament, the HOR, based in Tobruk, is expected to provisionally accept it.
And why not? The UN draft document gives the Tobruk parliament almost all political power – to make laws and to appoint the prime minister, head of the armed forces and chief of the central bank.
A volte-face by the UN Special Envoy, Bernardino Leon.
This power would come at the expense of HOR’s rival, the National Salvation Government – a rump government in Tripoli that includes Islamists and US-designated terrorists.
In fact, the agreement does not even acknowledge its existence.
The parties in the NSG, including the Muslim Brotherhood’s Justice and Construction Party, announced their united opposition to the plan within hours of it being made public, as did the Major of Tripoli, Mahdi Al Harati. Their demands have been ignored by the UN drafters thus far.
It’s important to understand how this multiple-parliament situation came about. The Tobruk parliament comprises the winners of the election last summer. The losers – mostly Muslim Brotherhood and other extreme Islamist parties – took Tripoli by force after losing seats at the ballot box.
The violence forced the legitimate parliament’s flight to Tobruk, a coastal town fairly near the Egyptian border.
The Tripoli government (NSG) has worked hard to mislead people about how it came to be. Its propaganda now casts its seizure of Tripoli as a “successful military and counter-insurgency campaign against [ISIS] and other extremist elements”. What nonsense.
In fact, the NSG military campaign “liberated” Libya from its democratically elected parliament. It also destroyed Tripoli’s international airport, facilitated ISIS attacks on Tripoli’s foreign diplomats, and has led to the subsequent unpunished ISIS beheadings of foreign workers and journalists.
Militias supporting the unelected NSG have also intentionally destroyed critical oil infrastructure in eastern Libya that serves as the revenue source for the democratically elected government in Tobruk.
The hope at this point is that the UN proposal will finally convince the important and sizable Misratan militias to break away from ‘the Dawn’ coalition
The Islamist government in Tripoli did not take up arms soon enough to stop ISIS, in fact the security meltdown and chaos it has caused allowed the terrorist organisation to gain a foothold. Meanwhile, NSG leaders continue to downplay the terror threat in areas they control, as well as its own ties to terrorism.
Former NSG Prime Minister Omar al Hassi characterised the US-designated terror group Ansar al Sharia in Benghazi as a “charity” and “a beautiful idea”. His successor, Khalifa Ghwell, used his first days in office to double down on official support for that group, which was implicated in the attack on the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, as well as 1,000 other killings.
But the NSG ties to terrorism are stronger than appreciated.
An example is Khaled Sharif, formerly of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, also designated as a terror organisation by the US, who had been rendered by US officials and imprisoned on terror charges before he was appointed Deputy Defence Minister for the Tripoli government.
He has since violated a UN arms embargo by importing caches of ammunition and weapons for Libya’s warring militias.
The hope at this point is that the UN proposal will finally convince the important and sizable Misratan militias to break away from ‘the Dawn’ coalition that created the NSG. This would reduce the Tripoli government’s support to only radical Islamist fighters and cadres tied to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Four years after NATO’s intervention, Libya has essentially become a failed state.
A multi-faceted militia war now rages there. Libya has two rival governments, one elected and one self-appointed, as well as other paramilitary groups, including the ISIS, all of whom are active in the country.
It’s a real mess but a solution could be in sight courtesy of the UN and the town of Misrata.
A switch of sides by the Misratans may be the only thing that can break the impasse in Libya and restore some small semblance of order to a deeply troubled nation.
Richard Galustian is a security analyst.