So far, the human population has passed through two demographic transitions, both recognised by the science of demography. The first theory states that all modern societies have passed from a phase of high mortality and fertility rates, through gradual decline in both, and, ultimately, reached the post-transitional stage of very low fertility and mortality rates.
This, of course, was happening in the context of social and economic modernisation. The theory proved itself in practice as, today, almost all developed countries have reached post-transitional stages.
With the invention of efficient and cheap contraceptives and their widespread use, modern societies have entered the so-called second demographic transition. This focuses on the appearance of a small number of children or no children at all, nuclearisation of the family, significance attached to children and wealth flow oriented to them rather than from them, emotional distancing from relatives and extended family, nurturing one’s own aspirations outside family and workplace. Gunter Grass described this scenario in one sentence: German couple holiday in Thailand and leave a cat at home.
This was a whole revolution of sexual behaviour and living arrangements. Individualism rather than societal norms became a leading consideration forming part of the daily lives of people in developed countries today. Postponement of childbearing or voluntary childlessness became more frequent, resulting in lower levels of fertility.
The decline of fertility and telescopic increase in longevity resulted in slow population growth, even a decline. With the beginning of the 21st century and an increase in migratory movements across the world, a case is being made for yet another demographic transition affecting developed societies, the third demographic transition.
The third demographic transition postulates that, given a continuous immigration of peoples from distant countries of origin, that is immigration, as David Coleman put it, of “persons... with distinctive ethnic and racial ancestry” and, in the scenario of long-term low fertility, of indigenous populations accompanied by their own emigration, the likelihood is that the immigrant population will gradually outnumber the local population in Europe and the USA.
Coleman lists the consequences of the third demographic transition as consisting of a change in culture, physical appearance of the population, social experiences and in self-perceived identity of the inhabitants of the European nations.
What is necessary for this transition to happen on a large scale?
Nothing can prevent migration, not even a strong political will
Firstly, fertility of the resident population has to be kept below its natural level of replacement in the long term. Secondly, if fuelled by low economic growth, emigration of the endogenous population has to remain permanent and intensive. Thirdly, constant high levels of immigration from remote and culturally and racially different destinations need to be maintained too.
Migration is as old as human population itself and there is nothing that can prevent it, not even a strong political will.
Migration is not a surreptitious process, it is visible, measurable and should be continuously analysed and carefully projected. In view of this, an active and selective immigration policy is necessary to ensure its positive impact on the economic growth and personal well-being of the future immigrants.
Immigration policies vary from expansionary ones, as applied in Canada and the UK, to the restrictive ones that have been successfully tested in the Netherlands and Denmark, to mention but a few.
The prerequisite for future life with an immigrant population will be respect through integration rather than through mere assimilation. Whatever this social encounter will be called, its level should be such as to ensure the individual’s ability to develop social interactions through social participation in which s/he can develop and enrich his/her social roles.
There will be the need for group adaptation on both sides. The history of European emigration teaches us that this was not always the case.
The Native Americans, inhabitants of North America for 14,000 years, did not stand a chance for gradual group adaption, which came with the arrival of European immigrants in the 17th and 18th centuries. What was supposed to be a group adaptation was a swift and brutal invasion.
We can safely say it was through migration that our culture, ethnic identity and genetic codes were created. The process of migration, which is targeting our territory and population, will not be the last. The fact is only that it is affecting us and now causing all forms of reactions, from compassion to demonstration and resistance.
The process has started, whether it will be reversible or if it will create overwhelming cultural and socio-economic consequences is still unclear.
The previous two demographic transitions were scientifically recognised as such and both live their lives on these islands. Whether the third demographic transition will live and stay too remains to be seen.
Maya Miljanic Brinkworth lectures on demography at the University of Malta.