The Palestinian Authority’s decision to ask the UN Security Council on Friday to grant it statehood recognition is a sign of Palestinian frustration at the lack of progress in the Middle East peace process.
Observer state status will give the Palestinians more leverage over Israel, which might make the two-state solution more of a reality- Anthony Manduca
Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians have been frozen since last September when the Palestinians broke off direct talks in protest against Israeli settlement construction in the occupied territories, and the establishment of a Palestinian state has been nowhere in sight.
The Palestinian request for statehood is a rebuke to the Obama administration and Israel which believe negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are the only way to create a Palestinian state. The US, which tried hard to persuade the Palestinians to drop their statehood bid, has already made it clear it will veto the Palestinian request when it is presented to the Security Council.
This veto will have consequences for US influence in the Arab and Muslim world and is disappointing given that President Obama – who seems to be influenced by domestic considerations – had pledged his administration would be an honest broker in the Middle East.
A top Saudi diplomat has warned that a US veto of the Palestinian bid for statehood at the Security Council would damage relations between the two countries and risks making the US “toxic” in the Arab world.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi Ambassador to the US, wrote in The New York Times recently that in the event of a US veto, “Saudi Arabia would no longer be able to cooperate with America in the same way it historically has”.
Prince Turki warned that a veto would see US influence decline, Israeli security undermined and “Iran will be empowered, increasing the chances of another war in the region”. He added: “The special relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US would increasingly be seen as toxic by the vast majority of Arabs and Muslims, who demand justice for the Palestinian people.”
A survey by the Arab American Institute last summer conducted in six key Arab countries showed that the continuing occupation of Palestinian land is seen by most Arabs as “the most important issue for the US to address to improve ties with the Arab World”. Vetoing the Palestinians’ request for statehood is unlikely to improve US-Arab relations.
What are the options for the Palestinians at the UN now that their request for full UN membership is to be vetoed by the US? The Palestinians are currently UN observers without voting rights, similar to the status of the EU at the UN. Once their application to become a full UN member state is rejected at the Security Council, they can seek to upgrade their observer status to a ‘non-member observer state’, like the Vatican.
The advantage of this option is that it does not require the approval of the UN Security Council – and therefore no threat of a veto exists – but only a simple majority of UN General Assembly, which consists of the 193 member states. This should be easily achievable as 120 countries have already recognised the state of Palestine today and the Palestinians are confident of getting the support of 150 countries.
An observer state status would be an important step for Palestinians as the UN is a source of authority on international law. This would allow the Palestinians access to international courts where, for example, they could challenge the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land. The Palestinians could also press charges against Israel in the International Criminal Court.
An upgrade to an observer state would also represent an important political victory for the Palestinians as the UN would be acknowledging that the Palestinians control an actual state. Also, a Palestinian observer state might ask for UN peacekeepers to be sent to the West bank and Gaza, for example, which would certainly be a very interesting development.
Can an observer state status lead to full UN membership? Yes, but such a move would still need to be approved by the UN Security Council and this is unlikely if the US still decides to veto such a request.
If the Security Council had to approve a Palestinian application for full membership a vote would then be taken by the General Assembly where a two-thirds majority is required for approval.
Russia and China have said they will support the Palestinian bid for statehood at the Security Council.
Meanwhile, the position of Britain and France is still not clear as the EU has not yet adopted a common position on this issue.
I am sure, however, that both Britain and France will not want to jeopardise their increasing influence in the Arab world as a result of their support for the Arab Spring, and they will take this into consideration when voting, either in the Security Council or the General Assembly.
There is a good chance, therefore, that the Palestinians will be granted observer state status on Friday, and I hope the US and all EU member states will vote for this in the General Assembly.
Although it is unlikely that this new Palestinian status will convince Israel to adopt a more conciliatory attitude towards the Palestinians, at least not in the short term, it will give the Palestinians more leverage over Israel in the long term, which might make the two-state solution more of a reality.