In September, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (based on surveys conducted by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs) continued to improve in both the European Union and the eurozone.
However, the indicator increased only marginally, by 0.3 of a point in the EU and by 0.9 of a point in the eurozone, to 103.4 and 103.2 respectively. In both the EU and the euro area the ESI stands above its long-term average.
Among the largest member states, Germany with another robust gain (+2.0) contributed the most to the overall development. Improvements were less pronounced in Spain (+1.1) and in the Netherlands (+0.9). The ESI in France remained broadly unchanged, while sentiment deteriorated in Poland (-0.7), Italy (-1.2) and even more so in the UK (-2.1).
In Malta the September indicator was up again, by 0.7 of a point, following a decrease of 2.3 points in August, the first such decrease in seven months.
Sentiment in industry remained broadly unchanged in the EU and improved by one point in the eurozone. In both areas the majority of respondents in this sector reported slight improvements in both their order books assessment and production expectations while managers’ assessment of stocks remained broadly unchanged.
The consumer confidence indicator weakened slightly (-1) in the EU and remained broadly unchanged in the eurozone. Consumers were a little more pessimistic about the general economic situation and their unemployment expectations, while there was no change in their own savings expectations and in the assessment of their future financial situation.
The confidence indicator in services remained broadly unchanged in the UK and improved by one point in the eurozone. Managers’ pessimistic assessment of the business situation in the UK over the past three months accounts for the difference in trends between the two areas.
Sentiment in the retail sector improved in both the EU (+1) and the eurozone (+2). The confidence indicator in construction picked up in the EU (+2) and in the eurozone (+3). Confidence in financial services, not included in the ESI, decreased in both the EU (-2) and the eurozone (-1).
During September the Business Climate Indicator for the eurozone registered a modest gain. The level of the indicator suggests that economic activity in industry will continue to recover in the coming months, the European Commission said. The indicator now stands at its highest level since December 2007.
The Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs conducts regular harmonised surveys for different sectors of the economies in the European Union (EU) and in the applicant countries. They are addressed to representatives of the industry (manufacturing), the services, retail trade and construction sectors, as well as to consumers.