THE Conservative Party leadership contest is well under way in Britain with former Cabinet heavyweight Ken Clarke formally announcing his decision to join the battle to replace party leader Michael Howard. Mr Howard, who announced his intention to resign after the Labour Party's third consecutive election victory earlier this year, steps down in October.
The Conservatives have been out of office since 1997, when Tony Blair's New Labour swept to power with the support of large sections of the middle classes. Mr Blair's moderate centrist political message earned him the support of many voters who traditionally voted Conservative. This, coupled with the fact that the Conservative Party turned decisively to the right since its defeat in 1997, ensured that the Tories lost both the 2001 and 2005 elections.
The Conservative Party, which was more or less regarded as Britain's natural party of government throughout the post-war period, won four consecutive general elections in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992, the first three under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher and the fourth with John Major as its leader. There is no doubt that throughout this period a number of crucial economic and trade union reforms were implemented which resulted in a very strong economy for Britain, which is still the case today.
The 1992 John Major government, however, which had a narrow parliamentary majority, was sharply divided over Europe and presided over a recession, very high interest rates which hurt many middle class mortgage holders, and higher unemployment. Furthermore, sterling's crash in 1992 and its consequent exit from the ERM ended the Conservatives' monopoly as competent managers of the economy and Mrs Thatcher's constant sniping at Mr Major during this period did nothing to increase the government's popularity. Neither did parliamentary revolts over Europe by right-wing backbenchers.
By 1997 the electorate felt it was definitely time for a change and Mr Blair, who was charismatic, young, modern, and had stolen many of the Conservatives' clothes and radically reformed the Labour Party, won the election in a landslide.
Since first being thrown onto the Opposition benches the Conservatives have been unsure how to confront Mr Blair and to state exactly what they stand for. Many of their policies have been adopted by the Labour Party so they no longer have a monopoly over certain free market policies. Furthermore, the Conservatives seem to have failed to realise that certain policies that might have been necessary in the 1980s are no longer valid today.
The 1997 and 2001 Conservative Party leadership contests were both won by right-wing contenders, first William Hague and then Iain Duncan Smith. Both adopted a right-wing and Eurosceptic platform; both failed to dent Mr Blair's popularity and both failed to appeal to voters other than core Tory supporters. In 2003 Mr Duncan Smith was unceremoniously kicked out of office in a party coup and replaced by former Cabinet Minister Michael Howard, also a right-winger but considered a political heavyweight.
Despite a decline in the Labour government's popularity due to the Iraq war and the state of public services, there was only a tiny swing towards the Conservatives last May, with most dissatisfied Labour voters turning to the Liberal Democrats. So once again the Conservative Party was unable to appeal to voters outside its core base. I have no doubt that this is because of its swing to the right over the years. It is indeed sad that a once great party which did so much for Britain has failed to attract support from the political centre and floating voters.
What is needed now is some soul-searching by the party. Which candidate is feared most by Labour and Liberals? Who is most likely to attract the support of moderate Labour and Liberal voters? Who is most appealing to floating voters? Who can best unite the party? Who is equal in stature to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown? Who has the most credibility among voters? Who is the real heavyweight among the potential leadership candidates? Who is the most charismatic? My answer to most of these questions is Ken Clarke.
I have always believed that elections are fought and won in the centre of the political spectrum. The 2001 and 2005 elections - when the Conservatives had right-wing leaders - proves this point. It is now about time they learn from their mistakes, shift to the centre and choose a leader who can bring the party to victory. Other potential contenders, who still have to officially declare their intention to run, include David Davis, David Cameron, Liam Fox, Theresa May, David Willetts and Andrew Lansley, all of whom can broadly be labelled 'right-wing' (some are less so than others), and Malcolm Rifkind, who like Ken Clarke belongs to the 'One Nation' banner of conservatism.
Of course, should Mr Clarke become leader he will be attacked by his opponents for his association with the unpopular Major government of 1992-1997 when he served as Chancellor for most of the time. He will also be criticised for some of the reforms he carried out as Health Secretary and Education Secretary in various Tory governments. This is to be expected, but I still think he has the best chance of defeating a Labour government, as none of his rivals have the same clout and stature.
Mr Clarke is both outspoken and credible on a number of issues. For example, he opposed Britain's participation in the Iraq war from day one and giving a foreign policy speech on Thursday he said that although Iraq was now a "dreadful mess" withdrawing British troops too soon "would be disgraceful". He said: "US Presidents are not right every time. I disagreed with the judgment on this particular invasion. What I am going to address is how do we progress from here."
Mr Clarke's pro-European beliefs have been used against him before - he lost the 1997 and 2001 leadership battles largely because of this - but this may not be so big an issue this time, especially after he gave an interview saying the euro has been unsuccessful so far.
The leadership contest rules will also have a bearing on the odds of Mr Clarke's becoming leader - if the rules are changed to give MPs the final say he probably has a good chance, but if the present system remains in place whereby Conservative Party members and associations (who tend to be Eurosceptic) decide, then he might not make it.