In 2016, Malta’s population increased by 20,000 overnight following a change in the methodology adopted by the National Statistics Office to estimate the number of inhabitants on the island.

The upward revision, which is equivalent to addi̱ng a town the size of Mosta, raised eyebrows and fuelled questions on the reliability of the current population data.

However, the NSO is saying that the discrepancy was due to a “sudden” net increase in migration which was not being given enough weight in the model used to estimate population changes. 

It transpires that according to a news release published on World Population Day on July 11, 2017, Malta’s population at the end of 2016 stood at 440,433. However, last February the same entity revised its own figure to 460,297 ‒ an increase of 19,864 which is equivalent to 4.5 per cent.

The significant demographic change was attributed to “methodological improvements” which in turn led to a revision of the migration flow data for European Union and third-country nationals for the period between 2012 and 2016.

Furthermore, the overall population by the end of last year stood at 475,701 – a rise of 35,268 in just 12 months when compared to the original figure of 2016.

This newspaper sought further explanations from the NSO, particularly how a methodological review would result in such a drastic variation.

The sudden increase in net migration observed after the 2011 Census differed from the trends previously seen between censuses

In its reply the office noted that it used a census-based approach whereby annual estimates of natural increase and migration flows were added to the previous year’s data in order to provide estimates of total population counts. The methodology used was in line with the 2013 European Regulation on Demographic Statistics, this newspaper was told.

“In absence of a national population register, this is the method currently available to the NSO to reliably calculate annual population estimates using a harmonised methodology which leads to comparable results across the EU,” a spokeswoman said.

Read: Population growth 15 times over EU average

Furthermore, the current method entails using a number of administrative sources and estimation techniques that require that assumptions on migration are taken based on trends seen between previous censuses, the NSO noted. 

“The sudden increase in net migration observed after the 2011 Census differed from the trends previously seen between censuses, therefore this trend could not have been predicted basing on the assumptions of past migration trends,” the office pointed out.

Consequently, there was the need to revise past estimation techniques to ensure that remained as accurate as possible, the NSO said.

This revision was also undertaken in the wake of the more accurate administrative data which has been recently provided to the Office for the computation of population estimates, the spokeswoman said. 

Read: Population growth - is Malta reaching the limit?

While noting that it continuously thrived to improve its methods and the quality of estimates, the NSO said that “unfortunately, revisions were very often a result of significant improvements in statistical methodologies, and cannot be avoided”. 

The spokeswoman emphasised that the NSO had many strict procedures regulating revisions, and new data would only be published when it was ascertained that it was providing a more accurate picture of current demographic trends and scenarios. 

These revisions should therefore not cast any doubt on the quality and reliability of the new figures, the NSO said.  

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