The European Union is meeting for an “informal” but crucial summit in Salzburg tomorrow at which the luckless Theresa May is hoping EU leaders will make concessions over the security and defence relationship between Britain and the EU after Brexit. The discussion could also give her vital ammunition to defend her Brexit strategy and the much criticised “Chequers white paper” when she confronts her party conference shortly after her return.

President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to throw May a lifeline by pressing for EU leaders to agree to a close relationship with Britain after Brexit as part of his grand vision for a united Europe. He wants to use tomorrow’s summit to spell out a new structure for European alliances. He is concerned that a “no deal” departure for Britain from the EU would shatter European ties just when needed most.

Macron appears to be the only leader reflecting on how Europe must adapt to survive. His proposals, if pursued, would be a step in the right direction.

A one-size-fits-all Europe is patently not working. If the Union could be more flexible, it will be stronger.

However, his vision of a “multi-speed” post-Brexit Europe faces opposition. The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, fears that such a discussion might exacerbate rifts among European leaders on migration policy at a time when the EU is aggressively threatened by populist governments in Hungary, Italy and elsewhere.

After Britain’s referendum in 2016, most European leaders convinced themselves that the EU was saved and no more dominoes would fall. Sweden with its envied welfare state and social cohesion, was thought to be immune from the trend to nationalistic politics. That illusion has been shattered.

As we gaze into the crystal ball, born-again Mussolini populist upstarts are reshaping Europe’s political map. The drift towards right-wing populism and fragmentation of mainstream politics seems unstoppable.

There are more refugees in Europe than at any time since 1945. Economic hardship has been further inflamed by the burgeoning refugee and immigration powder keg of the last few years, which has led to Eurosceptic, anti-immigration parties emerging in virtually all the countries of the Union.

In Germany the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the party of opposition, overtaking the Social Democrats in the polls. Eurosceptic populists have taken power in Italy, which almost daily challenge the power of the EU over migration and austerity measures.

Victor Orban of Hungary was returned to power with a bigger majority after a campaign based solely against (non-existent) immigration to his country. He now poses as a champion of national sovereignty in the face of Brussels bullying.

Poland defies EU warnings that its nationalist government jeopardises the rule of law. The Czech Republic and Slovakia support Hungarian and Polish stances on immigration. In the Netherlands and Austria, right-wing populist parties have gained more than 20 per cent in the polls. Formerly fringe parties are becoming mainstream, with startling effect.

Widespread disagreement between 27 disputatious states has led to the EU appearing weak and divided and its voters disillusioned. The sense of alarm is palpable

European politics was once defined by a centrist-right versus left debate over economic policy within a framework defined by stable institutions. Now, Europeans wrestle with concerns over national identity and security and a mistrust of institutions seen as having failed to protect them against austerity, terrorism and migration.

Populists, mainly of the far right, are on the rise as anger at the surge of uncontrolled migration into Europe and the handling of the economy deepens among ordinary people whose livelihoods and way of life have been adversely affected. Fears of a populist political backlash at the next Euro-parliamentary elections in May are high and rising.

Many voters seem willing to believe that politicians on the far right in Europe can deliver the strength and clarity they crave to protect national identity and sovereign borders. A vote for these parties is a vote of frustration and anger. Disenchanted voters believe that mainstream political parties have been hiding for too long from the realities of poorly integrated ethnic communities and the long-term destabilisation of mass immigration.

Immigration has shifted from an unsavoury niche topic - to which European politicians have largely paid lip-service over the last decade - to one that is absolutely central for the national identity of their countries. Every mainstream politician must come up with answers.

These upheavals present the EU with an unprecedented challenge to its identity, its administrative capability and its ability to combine a humanitarian response with hard-headed realpolitik. The crisis has hit the continent’s weakest economies hardest. It is exacerbating anti-immigrant extremism and has stymied the EU’s efforts to muster an effective and coordinated response.

Jean-Claude Juncker announced plans last week for a 10,000-strong armed border force by 2020 with extensive powers to detain migrants and deport failed asylum-seekers. The force will be deployed to the Mediterranean, joining existing forces in Spain, Greece and Italy. It will be allowed to use armed force to police national frontiers and will deploy to states outside Europe to increase the detention of asylum-seekers and fast-track deportations. Juncker hopes it will form part of a more assertive response to the migrant crisis aimed at taming the tide of populism that has swept the Union.

Will this initiative have the desired effect in halting the rise of populism? I doubt it. It is a tardy, simplistic response which is unlikely to disguise the impression of complete collapse of EU policy when confronted with unfiltered mass migration.

Europe’s current problems are far more deep-seated. Widespread disagreement between 27 disputatious states has led to the EU appearing weak and divided and its voters disillusioned. The sense of alarm is palpable. The poisoning of domestic politics right across the Union has hampered decision-making by governments marked by a populist surge, much of it fuelled by anger and frustration with Brussels.

It is for national leaders to lead the fight against Eurosceptics and populist extremists. They should stop blaming the EU for its ills. They should defend the benefits of the Union and fix its flaws by urgently making the bold and wide-sweeping reforms needed to tackle the instability caused by the immigration crisis, to secure its frontiers and to mend the Eurozone. The EU must reform at all levels if it is to survive.

Grand-standing in the course of a “State of the Union” speech is easy. Implementing policy is always the problem.

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