The north is no longer a Nationalist fortress and the south has squeezed the PN out. Keith Micallef analyses the election results from a geographical perspective

The Nationalist Party risks shrinking to a regional political force after losing the local elections by a historic margin of 47,116 votes, even larger than the 42,616 gap in the MEP elections.

The PN can now only bank on a majority in a cluster of localities in the centre of the island and has suffered a wipe-out in the south.

While this trend was fully exposed in the council elections, unofficial data also show that in the MEP elections the PN only obtained an absolute majority in the 10th district, consisting of Sliema and St Julian’s.

As for the rest, it obtained three relative majorities in the eighth, ninth and 11th districts, all of which are in the central-northern region.

MEP elections

For the PL it was mission accomplished in the elections for the European Parliament. Apart from winning by an unprecedented majority of 16.4 percentage points, the party for the first time won four of the six seats up for grabs.

The PN – the party which fought tooth and nail for EU membership – registered its fourth straight loss since the first MEP elections in 2004.

Furthermore, the party failed in its three major objectives.

First, it did not put up a serious fight to retain the third seat that it had won by a whisker five years ago.

Secondly, the margin of defeat was greater than both the last general election and the 2014 MEP contest.

Thirdly, the re-election of David Casa at the expense of Frank Psaila, who was being backed by the party machine, would be seen as a blow to the leadership.

Council elections

 Labour won two thirds of the localities – 47 out of 68 councils – against the PN’s 19 which included Mdina where no election was held.

The PN lost votes in 56 localities and gained in just 11. On the other hand, Labour increased support in 53 councils and suffered marginal losses in 14.

As in the MEP elections, the PN achieved none of its modest objectives. Apart from failing to retain St Paul’s Bay, it lost Mosta and Siġġiewi, failed to win Birkirkara back, and for the first time ever it even lost control of Valletta. Munxar was the only council the PN managed to sway in its favour.

San Ġwann also switched to Labour, even though the PN registered a marginal increase of votes there. The seemingly contradictory result was due to the fact that in the previous election the PN had won most seats despite obtaining fewer votes. In Msida, where the party was harbouring hopes of a win, the outcome was the complete opposite, with the PL increasing its lead.

Following these elections, the PN’s only remaining majorities are 11 in Malta and eight in Gozo. In Malta the distribution is very telling, clustered as they are around Sliema, St Julian’s, Swieqi, Attard, Balzan, Lija, Iklin, Mdina, Naxxar Għargħur and Mġarr. Nonetheless, in St Julian’s, Balzan, Għargħur and Mġarr, the PN suffered losses.

The picture in the rest of the island is much grimmer for the PN. The north is no longer a Nationalist fortress while the south is fast becoming a no-go area for the PN.

Apart from suffering huge losses, which in some places, such as Marsascala, meant a loss of seats, the party risks hitting rock bottom, winning just one seat by a small margin in certain localities.

If this trend persists in future elections it may find itself unable to elect any candidates in places like Cospicua, Għaxaq, Vittoriosa, Xgħajra and Marsaxlokk, where its share of the vote is dangerously hovering around the 20 per cent mark and in some cases has fallen as low as 15.5 per cent.

This election has also rekindled the debate on the decision to lower the voting age to 16. In Għargħur, 16-year-old Abraham Aquilina obtained most votes for the winning party, the PN, but has been denied the mayorship due to his age. Some might argue that this was a half-baked reform.

While small parties failed to win a single seat, independent groups and candidates had limited success. The biggest feat was probably that of 23-year-old Steve Zammit Lupi, in Żebbuġ, Malta, who obtained 947 first-count votes and was elected straight away. 

In Gozo, an independent group headed by David Apap, former PN mayor, won two seats in Għarb, while former Żebbuġ mayor Nicky Saliba was re-elected as an independent candidate.

These two localities ended up with a ‘hung’ council as no party has the majority of seats. The deadlock will have to be broken in the first meeting through a vote among the councillors.