The Nationalist Party is bracing itself for more political haemorrhage as vote-counting for the elections held on Saturday in 67 local councils starts on Wednesday afternoon and continues until Friday.
Localities have been divided into three groups for vote-counting purposes. The localities being counted on Wednesday are - Birzebbuġa, Għajnsielem, Dingli, Balzan, Tarxien, Zebbuġ, Valletta, Fontana, Marsa, Mellieħa, Qrendi, Nadur, Xewkija, Zejtun, Zurrieq, Għasri, Iklin, Mqabba, Pembroke, St Julian’s, St Paul’s Bay, Sta Venera and Ta’ Xbiex.
The local elections were held together with the European Parliament. Labour won a majority of 54.2 per cent, with a gap of 42,656 from the Nationalist Party in the EP elections on a turnout of 70.12% (according to the website of the Electoral Commission). Turnout for the council elections was 60.46%.
With thousands of PN-leaning supporters believed to have stayed away, a large number of localities may turn red from blue, including Valletta and traditionally PN-supporting towns, such as Siġġiewi.
PN general secretary Clyde Puli admitted his fears in a Net TV interview on Monday, but added that a party analysis of the way votes were cast in the 2017 general elections showed that had the council elections been held at that time, localities such as Valletta would have been lost anyway.
Siġġiewi has for many years been the only big PN-leaning locality in the ‘south’ of Malta, possibly due to the fact that former leader George Borg Olivier endeared himself to the population when he had his professional office there in the 1950s.
The PN won a 52 per cent majority when the election was last held there in 2015. What may help the PN this time is the fact that Frank Psaila, the mayor’s husband, was an MEP candidate and may have helped raise the turnout among PN voters. It was 73.10 per cent, among the highest on Saturday, despite a decline from 2015.
A big question hangs on two other so-called PN ‘bastions’ – Sliema and St Julian’s. Turnout crumbled to 34.77% in Sliema and 33.96% in St Julian’s on Saturday, compared to 57.3% in Sliema when the election was last held there in 2013, and 40.7% in St Julians in the election there in 2015. In the last elections, the PN had obtained 65.7% of the vote in Sliema and 60% in St Julian’s.
Consider, however, that the PL only fielded four candidates in the Sliema election and thus cannot even hope for a majority in the 11-seat council. The PD fielded one candidate.
The same applies to St Julian's, where the PL fielded four candidates for the nine available seats. AD fielded one, and PD another.
Meanwhile, in Valletta in 2013, the PN majority was wafer thin at 51.5 per cent. A Labour victory there could see popular One broadcaster Alfred Zammit become mayor.
Several other localities had a slim majority for both sides. The PN would relish winning back Birkirkara, which traditionally used to be their stronghold, but is currently led by mayor Joanne Debono Grech, the former Labour minister’s daughter. The Labour majority there was only 50.4%.
Mosta and St Paul’s Bay are traditionally battlefield localities. Over the past years, St Paul’s Bay saw bitter strife within the PN-led council and the government was strong in its criticism of its performance.
Labour will be watching Pembroke carefully. It enjoyed a 54.7 per cent majority last time, but the controversial Db development, which will literally cast part of the locality in shadow, could impact its performance. The smaller parties, in particular, were aggressive in their campaigning in this locality.
Also carefully watched by Labour will be Rabat, where the former mayor broke ranks with the party. It is very unlikely that Rabat will swing red, however.
Floriana could go anywhere. Neither of the big parties won a majority there last time, with independents getting a big slice of the vote and effectively being king-makers. The last mayor came from the Labour Party.
Among the other localities, the long-serving PN mayor of Iklin has not sought re-election, seeking election in Lija instead. The PN had a majority of 56.3 per cent here, but there has been controversy in the past years with the council having opposed plans for a by-pass as proposed by the Transport Ministry, despite the streets being clogged by north-bound traffic.
In Msida, the PN’s majority was just 50.26 per cent although Labour had a majority of seats. Days before the poll, the government produced drawings of a new road design to eliminate traffic congestion there.
Other localities with thin majorities are Pieta (PL), San Ġwann (PN), Mtarfa (PL) and Mellieħa (PL) although, given the situation in the PN, the likelihood is that the PL will increase its majorities.
An important point to consider is that unlike representation in parliament, representation in the local councils is not decided by the percentage of votes which the parties gain on the first count, but on how many candidates are left standing at the last count. There could – and have been – situations where a party wins a majority of votes but ends up with a minority of seats.
At the last elections, in half of local councils, in 2015, the PN gained votes in almost all the localities in Malta where the elections were held, but it slipped in Gozo. It got an advantage of just 50.1 per cent in Nadur but was ahead at 60.7 per cent in Victoria.
The PN is set to struggle even more in Gozo this time. In Għarb and Żebbuġ formerly PN mayors contested the elections as independent candidates last Saturday.