The limited impact on health and the environment from banning conventional fuelled passenger car imports has been approached (‘Electric Dreams’, April 29). Here, I will highlight the implications EV-Day has on mobility, the economy, social impact, affordability, and the effect on infrastructure.
Personal mobility and economic well-being are inseparable. Use of public transport, walking or cycling cannot fulfil everybody’s needs every time. Restricted access to personal mechanised mobility will create a cohort of citizens who become transport poor, increasing the risks for social exclusion in the process, especially relevant in view of Malta’s aging population.
Will there be a concurrent ban on imports of used conventional powered cars? If in the negative, the market share for these more affordable cars will increase, again. If at all legal in the EU context, a ban on second-hand conventional car imports creates a greater demand for the older cars already registered on the island. What will be the policy on classic and vintage cars importation?
Affordability is the primary consideration by low-income earners. Safe, small or medium-sized new EVs cost double an equivalent new conventional car. Low-income earners will find EVs unaffordable.
Their default choice will be an already registered second-hand petrol or diesel vehicle. As these vehicles age and fail VRTs, owner’s options dwindle as repair costs soar. Re-placement with viable and safe alternatives become inexistent. Regions in Malta with known lower socio-economic groups – the government knows very well in which electoral districts these families live – will have diminishing passenger car ownership within 15 years from the ban. If financial resources of an average young adult are used to purchase an EV, it will compromise the timing and ability to purchase property and start a family.
Likely uncommon, those young adults opting for property ownership first, a wise decision, carry the risk of becoming transport poor, a status worsened if an affordable, efficient and effective public transport system never materialises.
An eight-to-10-year-old EV will likely require battery replacement. Current cost is €160 per kWh of battery capacity – in ‘other’ countries. Automotive spare parts in Malta are more costly. Some charge twice as much, and I am talking from experience, though most get to around 1.4 times the prices found in other EU states.
Expect anything between €230 and €320 per kWh for battery replacement – an expense of €7,000 to €18,000. Without a battery replacement, a 10-year-old EV is unsellable and worthless.
Recharging a single EV at home will increase home electricity consumption by a third while the annual electricity bill will increase by €350, about half a yearly fuel bill for a patrol car – clearly cheaper running costs. Battery charging will be costlier if not done at the owner’s residence.
Range anxiety should hardly be a problem in Malta, but when and where to charge is. Malta’s EVs would need to be charged about twice a week or less. Other than the owners’ garage or drive, more expensive recharging would be possible at the owner’s work place, public roadside charging and, eventually, ‘petrol’ stations fitted with EV chargers.
In the latter case, quick charging for a 100 kilometre range in less than 15 minutes would only be possible with high end, expensive EVs. The certainty of charging one’s EV at home can only be guaranteed if one owns/rents a garage or has a drive on their property. This combination immediately puts lower income owners at a disadvantage. A double whammy for them.
Recharging a single EV at home will increase home electricity consumption by a third
Recharging a 60,000 EV fleet would require close to half a million kWh of electricity daily (average of 6.7 kWh of electricity for each 35km daily trip plus transmission and charging losses). Over an eight-hour night, the power demand equates to 50MW using €800 seven kW chargers.
To put this into perspective, it is roughly a seventh of the 360MW output capacity of the Delimara power station, Phase 3 and 4. Malta’s current peak summer demand is around 400MW.
An EV fleet will unlikely be evenly distributed across our islands due to socio-economic realities mentioned previously.
The electricity demand will be focally required in affluent regions where EVs can be afforded.
It would be quite difficult to predict in which few select regions demand would be high because of high EV ownership and to pre-emptively install adequate and costly transmission capacity.
Government incentives for EVs will diminish or disappear, increasing their price.
With 60,000 circulating EVs and 100,000 ICE cars withdrawn from circulation at some time, the exchequer will lose €20 million in annual circulation fees.
Favourable registration taxes on EVs will disappear, a replacement will require a new formula not based on emissions. Reduced sales of petrol and diesel diminishes government revenue by a further €38 million from loss of fuel taxes and Enemed’s reduced turnover. However, the owners of the electricity generating infrastructure will have increased turnover and profits.
If the agenda is to diminish road traffic on the island by pricing out lower income earners, this is better preceded by the public’s acceptance of public transport, which works well and fulfils citizens’ mobility needs.
The government can also simply disallow low-income earners from owning a car, which is effectively the outcome within 15 years from EV Day. Many will shift to motorized or un-motorized two-wheeled transport, in-creasing their risk to injury.
Today’s market has enticing EV options.
Expecting the price of an EV to diminish relative to the Maltese’s purchasing power is subject to debate. EV mobility is part of the future but imposing EV-only mobility will likely lead to some nightmares – the citizens’ electric nightmares.
Albert Bezzina is a medical professional interested in automotive and road traffic related subjects.
This is a Times of Malta print opinion piece