Paul Krugman’s article in the New York Times, ‘The Great Republican Abdication’ (April 25) referred to a book, How Democracies Die by Steven Livitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, that gives a frightening description of what happens when mainstream politicians abdicate responsibility in the face of a leader who threatens democracy.
This usually comes about for one of two reasons. Either they have exercised faulty judgement and belief that a leader can be controlled, or they’re willing to go along because his agenda overlaps with theirs.
The central question raised by these two Harvard professors who have spent more than 20 years studying the breakdown of democracies in Europe and Latin America is the following: is our democracy in danger?
Moreover, they claim that democracy isn’t going to go out with a revolution or a bang but will slowly be undermined and eroded. A steady weakening of critical institutions such as the judiciary and the press and the gradual erosion of long-standing political norms.
So what could happen to a country when its democracy is eroded or turned into a hybrid form of government where some democratic values are maintained but ‘married’ to authoritarian ones too?
Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is one such example and he was, without a doubt, one of the most controversial political figures in Latin America over the past decades. Three years after his death, what is his legacy?
In Dragon in the Tropics, Javier Corrales and Michael Penfold argue that his major legacy is the creation of a competitive-authoritarian system (elections, with conveniently built-in advantages for the ruling party). His successor, Nicolás Maduro went on to make the system more authoritarian, resulting in policy immobility and the most profound economic crisis in Venezuela’s history, the likes of which are unfolding before our eyes on TV and social media.
Chavez exploited a moment of strong popularity to eliminate checks and balances in Venezuela, a dangerous but not unprecedented move, consolidating too much power in the presidency.
No country is immune to the deterioration of democracy and given the rise of the right and populism within the EU a wake-up call is in order
Venezuela’s democracy in the 1990s was frail, but checks and balances were largely in place, before they were eliminated in ‘reforms’ - giving Chavez complete discretion over promotions in the armed forces and judiciary where he installed his supporters.
Venezuela’s 1999 Constitution transformed the country’s political system in what the authors refer to as a “high-stakes” model: the advantages of holding office and the costs of remaining in the Opposition significantly expanded.
When the stakes of holding power are high, the incentives for the party in government not to give up power to the opposition are great, thus creating a dilemma for the opposition. Should it participate in a system that is very clearly rigged in favour of the ruling party, implicitly legitimising it?
Why did Chavez, who strongly relied on the oil sector, allow it to decline so much since 1999? The authors argue that Chavez’s disdain for checks and balances, and his decision to transform the sector into a parallel state that spent more than $4 billion on social programmes (most of which proved to be unsustainable), ultimately explain its deterioration from a highly respected institution to a disfunctional one.
A critical window has now opened in Venezuela instigated by dire economic conditions following very stringent US sanctions. Juan Guaidó has the backing from the White House along with Canada, many South American countries and the EU.
Democracy cannot be denied Venezuela but there may be violence if the military doesn’t fully switch sides, as armoured cars are seen driving into crowds in Caracas. Maduro has support from Russia and China but will they continue to finance him?
Clearly, no country is immune to the deterioration of democracy and given the rise of the right and populism within the EU a wake-up call is in order. The good news is that there is an antidote to the erosion of democratic values that rise above polarisation by the re-establishing of norms that have undersigned democracy throughout history.
The undermining of democracy only comes about when we allow it. Politicians themselves overlook the warning signs. A good enough reason why we should never be complacent and take our freedoms and way of life for granted.
Madeleine Gera is an artist who lives and works in Valletta.
This is a Times of Malta print opinion piece