It is nearly three years, on June 23, 2016, since the UK voted to leave the EU. They have been three years of uncertainty to governments, businesses and citizens, of internal discord and upheavals within the British political establishment, and of excessively protracted negotiations that are still sapping the energies of both the UK and the EU administrations.
Even an orderly Brexit will be a long, energy-consuming process that will weaken the economies and global influence of both the UK and the EU. The departure of the world’s fifth largest economy from the EU Single Market will affect both sides.
Brexit will add unnecessary red tape and duplication, create friction to the flow of trade, and possibly dent the competitive edge of both British and European industries and services.
Both Britain and Europe will become weaker politically and strategically. With Brexit the EU will lose the geopolitical outreach provided by the UK. It will lose one of its major military players, and one of its two permanent UN Security Council members.
Without a close partnership in the areas of foreign policy, security and defence, the security and influence of both will suffer, as will the transatlantic partnership, the bedrock of European defence. The soft power of both will be considerably depleted.
No wonder that the Brexit debate in he UK has been so divisive, polarising citizens and alienating them from their government, which seems unable to take the decisions necessary to take the country out of its Brexit deadlock.
However, the Brexit debate among the Union’s wider public has given rise to more aggressive arguments for the reshaping of Europe along populist and nationalistic beliefs that undermine the basic values and principles of the Union.
Populist and Eurosceptic parties in Italy, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Germany, Finland and elsewhere, no longer want their country to leave the EU, but they threaten to insidiously remodel and transform the Union from within according to their populist strategy.
It was against this unstable backdrop, and aware that the UK and the EU were dangerously heading towards a bleak lose-lose scenario, that the European Council met on April 10 to discuss Prime Minister Theresa May’s request for a short extension of the Brexit deadline.
The concern of European leaders was not only to provide sufficient time and political space for the British Prime Minister to sort out matters in Westminster, but also to ensure that any extension would not undermine the unity and the functioning of the Union.
EU leaders have so far shown remarkable unity when faced with Brexit decisions. Initially some member states, with President Macron taking the lead, argued for a short extension, while others, led by Tusk and Merkel, believed that the UK should not be put under pressure and were prepared to delay Brexit by a longer period.
Maltese businesses and UK citizens resident in Malta that are likely to be affected by Brexit, in whichever form it may come about
Constructive discussions and compromise prevailed as the 27 agreed to grant a flexible extension until October 31. The advantages of this flexible extension were outlined by president Tusk during a press conference that followed.
First and foremost, the long extension ensured that all options remained on the table, among them the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and a possible Brexit rethink.
Secondly, the possibility of a no deal Brexit was delayed by more than six months, providing some degree of certainty to people and businesses in these unstable times.
Thirdly, the long extension provided time for the EU to focus on other priorities particularly the handing over to a new leadership of the EU institutions.
Prime Minister Joseph Muscat wisely went to the Special European Council of April 10 with an open mind, initially favouring a short extension but receptive to the arguments for a longer extension.
He was not the only European leader who urged for safeguards so that further procrastination of Brexit would not dangerously, and possibly permanently, harm the EU.
The extension is flexible because it allows for an earlier Brexit should the withdrawal agreement be ratified by both parties before October 31. This is indeed the intention of Prime Minister May who believes that the UK needs to leave the EU with a deal as soon as possible.
On the UK’s participation in the European elections, the European Council is categorical. If the UK is still a member on May 22, the last day before the EP elections, and if it has not yet ratified the Withdrawal Agreement, it must hold the elections, otherwise a no deal Brexit will follow on June 1.
Finally, one has to consider the second extension in its political context. The task of European leaders to provide safeguards for all eventualities is not to be envied because only the bravest of observers would dare making predictions on UK politics also solely for the short term.
As for the impact of the second extension on EU-UK relations, the 27 have reiterated that they are unwilling to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and that the extension should not be used to negotiate the future relationship. However, the EU is prepared to reconsider the Political Declaration on future relationship should the situation in the UK evolve.
On April 15, Muscat made a ministerial statement to Parliament on the outcome of the European Council special session of April 10. He explained all the possible scenarios that could ensue depending on ongoing developments in the UK.
Above all, he reassured the House that the Maltese government was prepared for all eventualities. Rules are already in place and our institutions and administrative structures are already equipped to deal with the impact of Brexit, even an undesirable no-deal Brexit.
Maltese businesses and UK citizens resident in Malta that are likely to be affected by Brexit, in whichever form it may come about, are certain that the Maltese government delivers, and that the assurances given by the Prime Minister inspire the much required confidence.
Edward Zammit Lewis is a Labour Party MP and chairman of the Foreign and European Affairs Parliamentary Standing Committee.
This is a Times of Malta print opinion piece