The Prime Minister has disclosed that soon, and suddenly, only electric cars will be imported – EV Day.
Is this a whimsical dream or a declaration taken on advice from competent persons? There are issues that need to be addressed relating to infrastructure, social, economic, mobility, health and the environment. This piece will deal with the latter two.
Effective, affordable and efficient mobility is essential for the economy. Public transport, cycling and personal transport will ensure this, but only if all the options are according to the needs of individuals. Each citizen’s mobility requirements can only be known by the citizen himself, not presumed by third parties.
Transport emissions have an impact on the environment and our health. Local media highlight the effects road transport pollutants have on citizens’ health, and rightly so.
There is less exposure on equitable and more pressing health issues. To name a few - obesity, smoking, urban densification, lack of open spaces and unhealthy advert-driven lifestyle choices.
If the aim of going for electric passenger cars (EV) is to improve the environment and the health of the inhabitants on this isle, number crunching will show that the improvements are real but by no means spectacular.
The gains can also be achieved, and surpassed, by other means. At the curb side, electric cars produce no nitrogen oxides (NOx), oxides of sulphur (SOx) nor volatile organic compounds (VOC).
Airborne particulates have a greater impact on health. Sources of airborne particulates are varied and road transport is not their only source.
Pollutants can affect people with cardio-pulmonary diseases, increase cancer risks and may be involved in increasing birth defects and interfere with childhood development.
Particulates originating from road vehicle exhaust are primarily from diesel-powered vehicles. All vehicles, including EVs, produce particulates from road, brake and tyre wear (RBTW).
Hypothetically, 19 years following EV Day, there would be 50,000 electric cars in the local fleet. Plausibly, only half that number of conventional cars would be taken off the road.
Currently, annual exhaust and RBTW particulate emissions from all road vehicles (2013 base data) is estimated at 309 tons; 124 tons from exhaust, 184 tons from RBTW.
Passenger cars produce 28 tons exhaust particulates (mainly from diesel-powered cars) and 62 tons from RBTW. Ten years after the ban, scrapping 25,000 old cars with Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs), reduce about three tons of exhaust particulates annually and about six tons of RBTW particulates. The replacement EV fleet will produce 10 tons of RBTW.
This last quantity, in theory, can be slightly less due to EV’s regenerative braking. Not much gain after 10 years then!
Each citizen’s mobility requirements can only be known by the citizen himself, not presumed by third parties
Other pollutants decrease by low single digit percentage points (2.5 to five per cent).
Further into the future, say 20 years after EV Day, there may be 100,000 EV passenger cars in the local car fleet. Two hundred thousand conventional-fuelled passenger cars would be scrapped having reached their end-of-life, but more specifically the scrapping of around 80,000 diesel passenger cars.
The most hazardous pollutants, particulates and NOx, would both decrease around 18 per cent. SOx and VOC’s would see a 40 per cent decrease.
The Prime Minister’s dream for EV-only car imports has no overwhelming advantage, only a painful upheaval.
A most effective way of improving air quality is to phase out all diesel-fuelled vehicles which are not EURO 6/VI compliant. Bus replacements can run on LPG. This can apply to commercial heavy vehicles too.
Liquid/Compressed Natural Gas (LNG or CNG) is not ideal for widespread use as leakages of methane have 20 times greater effect than carbon dioxide as a Green House Gas.
Changing the diesel public and private transport fleet to LPG will also reduce airborne particulate and NOx emissions by 18 per cent! This can be implemented in less than 10 years.
Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) do not directly affect our health. They will however effect the environment. ICE vehicles spew CO2 at the exhaust pipe. EV vehicles spew CO2 at the power station, however, well-to-wheel, EVs emit a third the CO2 of conventional-fuelled cars. There are two factors which reduce this disparity. A fuel-powered car can last 16 to 18 years or more. The battery pack of an EV lasts right to 10 years (dropping to 70 per cent efficiency).
CO2 emissions from battery manufacture for every 10km battery range, increases the vehicle manufacturing CO2 by 1.1 per cent (source data: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/19/electric-car-well-to-wheel-emissions-myth/).
An EV with a range of 250km produces 28 per cent more CO2 at the manufacturing stage. After 10 years, a new battery pack to extend the vehicle’s life to 18 years, will increase manufacture emissions by a further 28 per cent.
Fourteen tons of CO2 are used to manufacture a medium-sized car. Its EV equivalent with a battery replacement at midlife, creates a further 7.5 tons of CO2.
Twenty years after EV Day with 200,000 ICE cars off the road, the net CO2 reduction, at best, is 230,000 tons annually. That is equivalent to seven per cent of Malta’s total 2014 CO2 emissions (3,300,000 tons, including the often ignored million tons from tourist flights).
A total 230,000 tons of CO2 is equivalent to hosting 600,000 tourists flying in and out of Malta. Environmental savings can be achieved by going EV or limiting tourist arrivals.
The stock reaction would be that tourists sustain the economy. The importance of the environment is therefore subject to economic policy.
Allowing only the importation of electric passenger cars is not as much about the environment or our health, but about a whimsical dream. The Prime Minister’s electric dreams.
Albert Bezzina is a medical professional interested in automotive and road traffic-related subjects.
This is a Times of Malta print opinion piece