New President, Cabinet reshuffle and Constitutional Convention

In six months’ time it will be exactly 100 years since the Sette Giugno riots of 1919, which are widely considered the main catalyst for the eventual achievement of self-governance in 1921. While the centenary event is highly significant, it will also coincide with the instalment of Malta’s 10th head of state, with the five-year term of President Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca ending on April 4.

Though it is still early days, Education Minister Evarist Bartolo has already been linked with the presidency. An appointment like that would trigger a Cabinet reshuffle, as happened in 2014 when Ms Coleiro Preca was nominated. There is mounting speculation that former tourism minister Edward Zammit Lewis – who nearly missed out on re-election in 2017 and was saved by a casual election – is the first in line for a promotion to Cabinet. 

While Malta’s Head of State is largely a ceremonial figure, the next President’s legacy could be a lasting one, as he or she is expected to pilot the process leading to the “Second Republic”. Attempts to overhaul the 1964 Constitution have been in the offing since 2013 but it was only late last year that a steering committee, comprising representatives of the two major parties, was formed.

More changes in Cabinet are probably in the pipeline, as 2019 will also bring to an end the term of the EU’s Juncker Commission, meaning that the Maltese government will have to nominate Karmenu Vella’s successor. This could pave the way for the exit of another senior Labour politician, possibly Equality Minister Helena Dalli.

Adrian Delia and the PN’s future

If he lasts that long, the May elections could be do or die for Adrian Delia, after less than two years at the helm of the party. While it is an open secret that he does not enjoy the full support of party members, a bad showing in next May’s election would erode his position even further and boost calls for him to resign.

Education Minister Evarist Bartolo has already been linked with the presidency

Unfortunately for Dr Delia, scepticism over his political future does not only relate to his leadership qualities: questions have been raised about his integrity and personal life. Having started on the wrong foot from the very moment he entered the PN leadership race in the summer of 2017 – when he had to battle money laundering claims by slain journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia – he is still facing questions. While Dr Delia has strenuously denied any wrongdoing, the recent revelation by this newspaper that he is under police investigation over the matter has started to dent his credibility even among his most ardent followers.

As if this was not enough, the PN leader is also facing calls to resign over domestic violence claims, levelled over the Christmas period by his estranged wife Nickie Vella de Fremaux.

Many, even from within the PN, are of the opinion that a political party whose leader is constantly having to fight fires on various fronts stands no chance at the polls, even more so in the PN’s dire situation. Yet, Dr Delia is resolute about forging ahead.

Ironically, the dim prospects for May’s elections seem to have turned in his favour as it has so far discouraged any serious contender for the leadership from coming forward. However, the escalation of issues surrounding his marital breakdown has made the situation very volatile.

With senior PN officials admitting that the party is no longer functioning, it may not be long before the issue comes to a head. If not, Delia will have the daunting task of achieving the seemingly impossible: making inroads into Labour’s commanding lead in May. Or find himself in even hotter water.

MEP and council elections

The political highlight of the year is expected to be the European and council elections scheduled for May 25.

Normally, expectations for the party in government in democratic countries would not be very high, as mid-term elections usually result in some losses and are more about damage limitation than anything else. However, Malta seems to be an exception, as every single opinion poll carried out since the 2017 general election indicates that the PL could well widen the already huge gap between the two main parties. While Prime Minister Joseph Muscat has been trying to play the underdog card, it is more than plausible that his party will win four out of the six European Parliament seats up for grabs, as things stand.

While such a result would be another feather in Dr Muscat’s cap, it would further diminish the Nationalist Party’s electoral prospects, at least for the immediate future. It would mean that despite having changed leaders twice, the PN has made no inroads after six years in Opposition.

Is the PM still intent on calling it a day?

Ironically, a convincing result for the Labour Party could also result in Joseph Muscat bowing out of politics. Having repeatedly declared he has no intention of contesting the next general election, there would be no better time to pass on the baton than with his party enjoying more popularity than ever. Yet, he is still facing calls to stay on, sometimes publicly, as was the recent case of his predecessor Alfred Sant.

Should Dr Muscat resign, a hotly contested leadership race is on the cards. While one of the expected contenders, Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne, would appeal to the moderate faction, Transport Minister Ian Borg is also touted to be strongly interested in the position and his stock with the grassroots is rising. However, as the saying goes, where two are fighting, the third wins, which in this case could spell good news for another potential contender, MEP Miriam Dalli.

Corruption – 17 Black, Macbridge

2018 was the year in which Joseph Muscat claimed victory in the Egrant saga, as a magisterial inquiry concluded there was not enough evidence to support claims that he or his wife Michelle owned this secret Panama company.

Yet, the government’s reputation of bad governance and corruption suffered another blow in November when damning evidence emerged involving Minister Konrad Mizzi and the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Keith Schembri. The Times of Malta and Reuters revealed that the owner of Dubai-based company 17 Black – which planned to deposit $2 million in the accounts of secret Panama companies owned by Mr Schembri and Mr Mizzi – was Yorgen Fenech, the chairman of the consortium chosen by the government to build the new power plant in Delimara.

The link prompted even more calls for the Prime Minister to take action, given that Mr Schembri and Mr Mizzi, who deny any wrongdoing, persistently refuse to consider stepping down. 

Labour’s already weak reputation for fighting corruption would be further eroded

However, there could be more dark clouds on the horizon. Apart from 17 Black, leaked emails uncovered in this joint investigation by Times of Malta and Reuters showed that there was also another company by the name of Macbridge, which was also identified as a source of funds for the companies owned by Mr Schembri and Mr Mizzi.

The identity of Macbridge’s owner has not yet been established. However, if it were to be somehow linked to the power station project or any other member of government, Labour’s already weak reputation for fighting corruption would be further eroded. In the hypothetical scenario of this happening following Dr Muscat’s departure, it would not bode well for Mr Mizzi because the Prime Minister, who has been a staunch defender of his, would no longer have the final say.

Meanwhile, three other pending inquiries could have very serious repercussions for Labour. These relate to allegations that Mr Schembri received kickbacks from the sale of passports, another that involves him and former Allied Newspapers managing director Adrian Hillman in money laundering claims, and a third into Panama Papers revelations. The latter is yet to start due to legal challenges mounted by the ‘defendants’, including Mr Schembri, who objected to this probe taking place.

This year will also mark the second anniversary from the assassination of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. While three persons were charged in December 2017, the masterminds are still at large.

Roadworks galore

Away from politics, 2019 will see many more of the country’s arterial roads turned into construction sites, as a number of large-scale infrastructural projects get underway, hopefully alleviating traffic congestion.

 Apart from ongoing works on the multi-level junction near the Addolorata Cemetery, the next 12 months will see the completion of Tal-Balal Road, the reconstruction of the Valley Road bridge in Msida, the widening of Triq Buqana between Rabat and Mosta, and probably the start of the controversial Central Link Project between Attard and Mrieħel.

Having so many concurrent projects risks bringing the island to a standstill, unless there is a comprehensive traffic management plan in place to minimise disruptions. Meanwhile other large-scale projects like the Santa Luċija tunnel and the Malta-Gozo Tunnel are already in the pipeline.

No-deal Brexit?

From an international perspective, the UK’s departure from the EU may affect Maltese consumers, especially if there is no deal. This scenario would mean the imposition of tariffs on imports from the UK, which would result in higher prices.