Last week, US President Donald Trump announced that he was withdrawing from a nuclear arms control agreement (referred to as the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty) with Russia, which was signed in 1987. Although this agreement had not signified the end of the Cold War (that came later with the agreement signed in Malta in 1989 by Russia and the United States), it did mean that Europe has been free of nuclear missiles since then.
Even more significant is the fact that if this treaty collapses, and with the expiry of the New Start Agreement in 2021, the world could be left without any limits on the nuclear arsenals of nuclear states for the first time since 1972.
This year we celebrate the 100th anniversary since the end of World War I. Many claim that the terms of the Treaty between the winners and the losers of that war, paved the way for the World War II just over two decades later. Since then, there have been many conflicts in various parts of the world, but not on the scale as World War II was. We still have some of those conflicts going on now.
From the ashes of World War II, Europe resurged and our continent has enjoyed uninterrupted peace since 1945, with the exception of the Balkan War at the end of the 1990s and beginning of the 2000s. We also had conflict in Cyprus with the Turkish invasion of the island in 1974.
Wars and conflict may make some people richer; but they do not make populations richer
We also had the Cold War, which was a state of tension between Russia and its allies in Eastern Europe and the US and its allies in Western Europe. As I mentioned, that ended in 1989 with an agreement signed in Malta.
This long period of uninterrupted peace brought about a period of economic prosperity in Europe and the creation of the European Union in successive stages. As such there is a very clear link between peace and economic prosperity. They do hand in hand. Admittedly wars and conflict may make some people richer; but they do not make populations richer. This has been the policy that successive governments have adopted in Europe and the other leading world economies.
Therefore Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the INF agreement represents a totally different scenario not only from a political perspective but also from an economic perspective. This scenario is certainly not the same we had in the 1970s and 80s at the height of the Cold War.
Europe is an unwilling protagonist in this new scenario, as medium range missiles are likely to be placed on European soil, as had happened in the past. However, one doubts whether most European countries have an appetite for this anymore. Before it was a willing ally of the US.
Nowadays, Trump and Europe simply do not see eye to eye on so many things, that each side has upset each other numerous times in these last two years. A few examples are climate change, import tariffs, economic sanctions against Russia, how to deal with Iran and the Ukraine. Europe’s key objectives today are more economic, than political or military.
Moreover, today there is a fourth protagonist which 30 years ago was still not a major player on the world stage. This is China. China’s ambitions are not military, but economic. It has a large population to feed and will not allow anything to stop it from doing so.
The way the situation will evolve is still to be seen. Trump may yet go back on his decision. However, we need to appreciate that two of the four major players on the world’s stage are more keen on ensuring that they get their economy right, than anything else. Other key players such as Japan, Australia, Canada and India also have similar aims.
For all of them peace means economic prosperity and as such have no interest in war games. As the scenario continues to evolve we should not be too surprised if this group of countries form an alliance that would want to ensure that the economic agenda prevails over the political and military agenda.
The role of Malta in this regard should not be underestimated. We have also benefitted greatly from the period of uninterrupted peace in Europe and we should spare no energies in making sure that this peace lasts forever. We should not ignore the changing scenario, brought about by renewed tensions between Russia and the US.