It now seems clear that the writing is on the wall for Nationalist Party leader Adrian Delia. At the moment, he is like the captain of a warship who knows that when the battle starts, his ship will be torpedoed not only by enemy submarines but even by a number of those who should be on his side. The reality is that Delia is putting up a very good show attempting to rebuild the political party he leads, but he faces impossible odds.

Let’s start with the situation inside the Nationalist camp. The party is divided into two factions, those supporting Delia and those still supporting Simon Busuttil. It’s a situation of Partit Nazzjonalista versus Forza Nazzjonali. The latter includes not only several prominent parliamentarians but also has the support of others who have left the PN and are operating outside the party. Prominent among them are the family of the late Daphne Caruana Galizia.

There is a substantial number of people who formerly voted for the PN and who today are totally anti-Joseph Muscat and anti-Labour but who have lost faith in the PN and simply don’t care any more. A small minority are putting their faith in the PN’s partner in Forza Nazzjonali, i.e. the Democratic Party. Although this party has very limited human and financial resources, it can boast of two heavyweights in Godfrey and Marlene Farrugia.

Opposing Delia is a strong and united Labour Party led by arguably the greatest political strategist in Malta’s political history,  Joseph Muscat. A politician who seems invincible at the moment and whose popular support continues to increase despite his having had to negotiate his way through such potential minefields as the Panama Papers, the assassination of Caruana Galizia, the problem of irregular immigration, and the destruction of the Maltese environment through overdevelopment.

Delia is also enormously handicapped by the dearth of talent within his party. When one remembers the not so distant past of the PN and compares it to the present situation, one is appalled by the difference in quality and calibre between the Nationalist parliamentarians and party officials of those days and today.

Indeed, it is no exaggeration to state that the PN today has no one even remotely approaching the political acumen, competence and popular appeal of politicians of the Eddie Fenech Adami era like Tonio Borg, Guido de Marco, Louis Galea, and others.

A new leader, in normal circumstances, would have time to learn on the job but unfortunately for Adrian Delia he does not have that time

To make matters worse, Delia’s chances of political success are further impaired by the PN’s financial situation. Although it is now better, it still pales into insignificance when compared to that of the Labour Party. Of course, the latter also enjoys the advantages of being in power, which means that people are much more likely to support it financially than they are likely to support the PN in Opposition.

Since clientelism still dominates the public’s approach to politics in Malta, this is understandable but it is still a major drawback for Delia and the PN.

Even more worrying for Delia is the fact that many people have lost faith in the PN media. A number of biased and exaggerated reports and other baseless allegations about Labour and the government have led to a situation where many people are shunning the PN media and seeking information through the independent media, which is considered as being much more reliable and of a higher journalistic quality.

This is a great problem for Delia as getting the party’s message through to as many people as possible is crucial in any electoral campaign.

Finally, one has to mention that Delia also has defects as a political leader. He is a good speaker and mixes easily with all kinds of people but the fact that he lacks political experience has sometimes handicapped his work. A new leader, in normal circumstances, would have time to learn on the job but unfortunately for Delia he does not have that time.

The European Parliament and local council elections are only 10 months away and the PN is way behind the PL in the electoral race. It is almost certain to receive another major drubbing in May 2019. If Delia suffers an embarrassing defeat, his fate would be sealed. As things stand at the moment, his political survival as PN leader will be impossible.

His opponents in the PN camp are too many and they will certainly try to remove him. This would probably result in the splintering of the PN into two distinct parties, one of the greatest tragedies that could happen to Malta as it would mean that the country would have one all-powerful political party in government and a number of small political parties with hardly any political power at all.

This bleak scenario has a very real chance of becoming a reality. It would be in nobody’s interests, not even that of the Labour Party itself, to have an Opposition with hardly any political clout at all.

We would have regressed to the days of the first general election for a Maltese government in 1921 when the Nationalists had two political parties, Ignazio Panzavecchia’s more moderate Unione Politica Maltese and the more militant Partito Democratico Nazionalista, led by Enrico Mizzi.

Of course, the real tragedy would be the blow to democracy. Having all PN party members elect the leader was a very positive development in Maltese politics. Having prominent persons within the party itself undermining such a choice is the basest, disloyal, undemocratic behaviour possible.

You cannot contribute to a leader’s political failure and then demand his removal because of such a failure. We are already hearing stories of people in the PN camp who will not be voting next May or will even vote PL to get rid of Delia.

If this is true, then Delia is finished... but so is the PN.

Desmond Zammit Marmarà is a Balzan Labour councillor.

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