President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States is to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as its is officially known, is the most reckless and irresponsible national security decision of his presidency. It has potentially very far-reaching damaging consequences and I have no doubt that Trump will come to regret his very poor judgement on this matter.
The Iran nuclear deal was a landmark accomplishment of the Obama presidency – which is without doubt the main reason why Trump wants to kill it – and it is working. It has prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons and the whole international community has said that Tehran was abiding by the terms of the agreement.
In a nutshell, the nuclear accord in 2015 was agreed to by Iran, the US, the UK, France, China, Russia, Germany and the EU, and was approved by the United Nations Security Council. It saw Tehran agree to limit the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium – which is used to make reactor fuel, but also nuclear weapons – for 15 years and the number of centrifuges installed to enrich uranium for 10 years.
Iran also agreed to modify a heavy water facility so it could not produce plutonium needed for a nuclear bomb, and to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors unlimited access to its nuclear sites and any site in the country they consider suspicious. Furthermore, as part of the deal Iran reaffirmed “that it will under no circumstances ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons”. In return, economic sanctions imposed by the UN, US and EU on Iran were lifted.
Typically, Trump ignored Washington’s European allies, in particular France, Germany and the UK – all of whom are signatories to the nuclear accord – who urged him not to withdraw from the deal without offering a better alternative. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats all confirmed that the accord was working and was being adhered to by Iran, as did numerous American and Israeli military and intelligence officials, past and present, both officially and unofficially, yet Trump still chose to ignore the facts and to blatantly lie about the nuclear agreement when announcing the US withdrawal. Trump’s decision also shows that he has increasingly come under the influence of his hardline national security adviser, John Bolton, who is neurotic about Iran, and who has often advocated regime change in Tehran.
Listening to Trump make his JCPOA announcement on Tuesday it was evident that he did not understand what the nuclear accord was about, he certainly hadn’t read the agreement or else he simply chose to ignore the facts in order to justify his obsession with trying to get rid of another of Barack Obama’s great accomplishments. He lied repeatedly during his press announcement saying things like the nuclear accord allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium, Tehran had not lived up to the terms of the agreement and that even if there was compliance Iran could produce nuclear weapons in a short period of time. All of these claims are false.
The Iran nuclear deal was a landmark accomplishment of the Obama presidency, which is why Trump wants to kill it
Trump also complained that the deal did not address Iran’s ballistic missile development or its role in conflicts in the region, but the whole point of the nuclear agreement was just that: a deal to neutralise Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s regional behaviour and missile tests are something which were never meant to be dealt with under the nuclear deal and which can be addressed separately through patient diplomacy and dialogue. As for some of the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities expiring in 10 to 15 years, surely this is also something which can be negotiated independently of the nuclear accord while keeping the deal – which Trump has offered no alternative to – intact?
Unfortunately we can expect this latest development to further strain relations between the US and its European allies, much to the delight of Russia. Withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, undermining Nato, pushing for an ‘America First’ foreign policy and adopting a protectionist trade policy are all bad enough, but I fear this latest decision will really drive a wedge between Washington and Europe.
What are the immediate dangers of Trump’s withdrawal from the accord? The President’s act of folly will no doubt strengthen the hand of hardliners in Iran, it will allow Tehran to resume uranium enrichment if it too withdraws from the deal – which will then encourage other countries like Saudi Arabia to start their own nuclear programme, it will cause new strains in the Transatlantic relationship, it increases the likelihood of Israel attacking Iran – and engulfing the whole Middle East in a spiral of violence and conflict, it shows that America does not live up to its commitments and it will make North Korea think twice about entering into any nuclear deal with the US.
Can the agreement be saved? Yes, it can, and all the other signatories to the deal – including Iran – have made it clear that they remain committed to the agreement. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said: “If we achieve the deal’s goals in cooperation with other members of the deal, it will remain in place.” However, Rouhani also said that he had ordered the country’s Atomic Energy Organisation to be ready to resume the enrichment of uranium without any limitations in case the nuclear deal collapsed.
After Trump’s announcement the US Treasury said sanctions on Iran would be reimposed on the industries mentioned in the 2015 deal, including the country’s oil sector, aircraft exports, precious metals trade and Iranian government attempts to buy US dollar banknotes. The sanctions would be reintroduced gradually, after 90 days and then 180 days, and could just possibly provide some breathing space for the international community to explore if the US position is at all flexible, although I think it is not.
Furthermore, John Bolton is reported to have said that European companies doing business with Iran will have to end their commercial activities within six months or face US sanctions. This is both misguided and disappointing, and will no doubt further strain an already challenging Transatlantic relationship, at a time when the West needs to be united in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia.
It is now up to Europe and the other signatories of the Iran deal to do whatever it takes to save the accord and to assure Tehran that they will remain faithful (unlike the US) to the terms of the agreement. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said the EU was “determined to preserve” the deal and Europe certainly has a huge role to play here.
If the Iran deal does collapse and Iran decided to restart its nuclear activities, then the world is really in trouble. There is no ‘Plan B’ – something Trump obviously did not take into consideration. Iran and Israel are already involved in clashes in Syria that risk escalating beyond control, and Trump has surrounded himself with people who are exaggeratedly pro-Israeli and ferociously anti-Iranian, so we can forget Washington urging both sides to show restraint in such a scenario.
The US exit from the Iran deal is simply a lose-lose situation and will go down in history as one of the worst and most dangerous decisions by a US President who is clearly out of his depth when it comes to global issues. Former US President Barack Obama summed up the dire implications of Trump’s decision, saying: “Without the JCPOA, the United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East.”