Japan’s longest run of economic expansion since the 1980s asset bubble may be entering a turning point, with data out last week suggesting consumption will fail to drive growth if trade frictions undermine exports.

Household spending shrank 0.9 per cent in February from a year earlier, the biggest drop since a 1.4 per cent fall in April last year, while inflation-adjusted real wages fell for a third straight month in February, undercutting consumer buying power.

A slowdown in consumption would be an additional headache for Japanese policymakers, who fret the yen’s recent rises and fears of a trade war hurt the export-reliant economy.

“External demand and consumption aren’t very strong, so economic growth may have ground to a halt in the first quarter,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“The strong yen could hurt exporters’ earnings. That’s a concern because companies won’t raise wages, which means consumption won’t fire up.”

Unusually cold weather kept consumers at home and heavy snow led to a spike in vegetable prices, which discouraged households from spending on non-necessities in February, analysts say.

The drop in spending confounded a median market forecast for a 0.3 per cent gain and followed a 1.9 per cent rise in January.

Separate data showed real wages fell for the third straight month in February, reinforcing the view the Bank of Japan’s two per cent inflation target will remain a distant goal and keep the bank from dialling back stimulus any time soon.

Last week’s string of data comes in the wake of a BOJ survey that showed business sentiment souring for the first time in two years, suggesting the strong yen and escalating US-China trade frictions are taking their toll on confidence.

Consumption has been a soft spot in an otherwise robust recovery, hampering the BOJ’s efforts to achieve its inflation target as firms remain wary of raising prices for fear of scaring away cost-sensitive households.

“The pick-up in consumption seems to be stalling,” a government official said, offering a gloomier view than last month when the government said consumption was recovering.