The events around the world of the last weeks, which in turn are a consequence and a reflection of the events of the last months, point to a changing world scenario. The impact may be seen mainly as political; however, there are likely to be economic consequences as well.

We should not take this changing global scenario as being necessarily a bad thing. I simply believe that as a country we should seek to understand what is happening around us and take steps to exploit any opportunities and to face any challenges that may arise. The aspects I shall be referring to are not necessarily in any order of importance or priority.

The first is Brexit. The UK government has now set a definite date by when the UK shall exit the European Union at the end of March 2019. At present, the House of Commons is starting its debate on the EU Withdrawal Bill.

There are a number of Conservative MPs who said that they expect that the final decision on any agreement with the EU needs to be approved by Parliament. However, they do not want a “take it or leave it” approach but what they call “a meaningful vote”, implying that if possible the government would be asked to go back and renegotiate.

The messages that seem to be perceived from both the side of the EU and of the UK government is that there may actually be no agreement at all and that there will be a hard Brexit. What this will mean for the European economy and the global economy as a whole is as yet uncertain.

However, a hard Brexit may mean a weakening of commercial ties with the UK. It could also mean an exit of businesses from the UK towards EU member states. There are a number of reasons why Malta should be the preferred destination for such businesses and we need to be ready to welcome them.

The second aspect is the role of the US in the world economy. I cannot understand, let alone agree, with those analysts that have been critical of the change in stance of the US on the world stage, following the election of Donald Trump as President. There is an underlying assumption in such criticism – that the US owes the rest of the world a living. It does not and so the implementation of the Trump’s election slogan, ‘America First’ is to be taken note of and accepted.

What we should be discussing is the economic implications of such a stance. The US appears to be moving away from multilateral agreements towards bilateral agreements with individual countries. Issues such as the democratic credentials of these individual countries are considered to be irrelevant.

Will this new stance mean that the US will no longer be an economic superpower and will be just an economic power at the same level as China or Japan or the EU? What will be the reaction of the rest of the world to global brands such as Google, Facebook and Apple? Will there be further tightening of rules to ensure that such companies pay all taxes due?

These developments will present threats and opportunities and it is up to us to make sure that we exploit such opportunities and mitigate the impact of the threats

If the US takes on a smaller role on the world economic stage, that stance is likely to leave more space for China, Japan and the EU. Will there be closer economic cooperation between China and the EU?

If there will be such closer economic cooperation, will Malta stand to benefit, considering that in our smallness and in China’s largeness, we have consistently enjoyed good relations? Again I believe that there are several reasons why Malta should be the preferred destination for Chinese businesses seeking to expand into Europe, especially once Brexit happens.

The next aspect is the tapering off of quantitative easing in Europe and the expected rise in interest rates. The US and the UK have already had an increase in interest rates this year and there may be more increases over the next 18 months.

There are now enough signs in the eurozone that economic recovery is gaining a hold. This is bound to raise inflation and eventually lead to a rise in interest rates. How will the economies of the various countries in the eurozone react to such a rise in interest rates?

Is there the possibility of it triggering an economic slowdown and not just a containment of inflation? What would be the impact on the discretionary income of households?

There are indeed other aspects to mention such as the forthcoming elections in Italy, where the contest seems to be limited to a choice between two persons whom The Economist had dubbed as clowns five years ago.

Then there is the situation in Spain and the demand for independence by Catalonia. Will this trigger other demands across Europe? Will technology bring about further disruption? And will there be further pressing by certain EU member states for increased tax harmonisation in the EU?

All these events could lead to a global scenario that will be so different to what we have today. Malta can do little or nothing to influence any of these developments. And if we even try to influence such developments, no one will take us seriously anyway. However, these developments will present threats and opportunities and it is up to us to make sure that we exploit such opportunities and mitigate the impact of the threats.