In Houston, an unprecedented 127cm of rain have fallen in less than a week, with an eastern suburb receiving 132cm of rain, a new record for the continental United States. But unwelcome rainfall records are tumbling on the Indian sub-continent as well. Much of south Asia is flooded.
More than 1,000 people have died as a result of this year’s monsoons. Nearly 700,000 homes have been destroyed in Bangladesh. Mumbai’s streets are waterways. The contrast between rich and poor countries could not be starker.
Scientists do not claim that global warming caused Hurricane Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico, or the historic monsoons on the sub-continent.
They do believe, however, that climate change means that storms intensify more quickly and less predictably as warmer sea-surface temperatures lead to greater evaporation, contributing to rainfall and flooding. Experts calculate that rising sea levels are also a factor behind stronger storm surges.
No one can predict the outcome of climate change, or its effects, with complete certainty. But scientists now know enough to understand the risks.
Global warming is not a theoretical phenomenon. Its potential damage is not an abstract proposition.
It is not alarmist to state that if global warming continues on its upward path, Malta will become largely unrecognisable from the island we know today – at worst, an arid, thirsty, overheated rock.
Warming will affect Malta in many ways. The impact of climate change will lead to more extreme and haphazard weather patterns, with prolonged Saharan-style (‘Lucifer’) heat-waves, more intense rainy periods and longer, dryer spells. The escalating rise in temperature will be accompanied by severe water shortages as rainfall over the central Mediterranean is drastically reduced.
The biggest impact will be to exacerbate the problems with our water table, which is already not being replenished quickly enough. Lack of water and moisture in the soil and rising sea levels will lead to increased salinity. Crop yields will be diminished and the process of desertification will become unstoppable.
The effects are already being felt by wine-makers in Malta and in vineyards throughout Europe.
Moreover, the predicted sea level rise could transform the landscape and affect buildings that are close to the sea in low-lying areas, impacts which would be further compounded by strong winds and storm surges battering the coast.
Put starkly, climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world, effects from which Malta will not be immune: access to water, food production, use of land, health, the economy, security and the environment itself.
Malta should start preparing now by drawing up a long-term adaptation and mitigation plan to cope with the effects. This includes identifying the areas that will be prone to sea flooding and building appropriate flood defences; drawing up a comprehensive water policy framework plan to ensure the survival of the mean sea level aquifer; and developing comprehensive mitigation and adaptability plans to protect our cultural heritage.
By their nature these are costly long-term infrastructure projects. But the temptation to postpone them must be resisted. We cannot afford complacency where something as fundamental as a country’s own physical landscape, cultural heritage and identity are concerned.
The unprecedented flooding unleashed by Hurricane Harvey in the southern United States underscores the need for even wealthy countries to increase their disaster plans to keep vulnerable people safe and to deal with the knock-on blows that climate change will bring.
Investing now in measures to protect those areas in Malta at greatest risk – our low-lying coastal areas, our cultural heritage sites – is essential as the intensity and frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase.