Next year, Italy has its national election. The complex migration problem will loom high in people’s mind when they cast their vote. The Opposition is making hay while the sun shines. Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia, has accused the government of being soft on the issue and of greatly mismanaging the migration crisis to the detriment of Italy.

Despite his advanced age, Berlusconi is trying to make a comeback in politics by aiming to form a right-centre coalition in the next election under his party’s leadership. He believes the migration problem in the central Mediterranean and its negative impact on Italy can be the vehicle for his triumphant return to the forefront of Italian politics.

However, Beppe Grillo, leader of the 5 Star Movement (the largest Opposition party and the second largest party in Italy after the Partito Democratico), has his own ambitions. He is also using the migration crisis to try to shore up his party’s support in the southern Italian regions, notably Sicily. If he succeeds, this would make him unassailable in the next national election.

However, predictions are difficult to make, given the existing political fragmentation of parties in Italy. Recent voter inclinations have shown that the 5 Star Movement is able to attract former far-right and anti-immigrant supporters of the Northern League as well as hard-line Leftists. A strange combination but probably therein rests the 5 Star Movement’s strength. Italians are fed up with the situation in the Mediterranean. They feel abandoned by the European Union, having been left to shoulder the whole burden of the migration emergency in central Mediterranean on their own. The EU’s Triton Operation and those NGOs operating rescue ships are, moreover, being accused of running a ‘sea taxi’ service for illegal migrants. Collusion between NGOs and smugglers dealing in migrants is also being alleged.

In 2014, the number of migrants arriving in Italy by sea amounted to 170,100, up 296 per cent over 2013. In the following year, it dropped slightly to 153,842, a decrease of nine per cent. Last year, the figure hit 181,100, that is 18 per cent more than 2015.

What happens in Italy in the next national election would definitely impact Malta

After an initial surge in the first months of this year, the numbers of migrants making the crossing from Libya in July saw a remarkable drop of almost 50 per cent over the figure for the same month last year. July is normally the peak period for the crossings from Libya. The assailed government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni hailed this as an indication of a turning point in the migrant crisis made possible by the tougher combined actions taken against smugglers in the Mediterranean.

Aware that the situation might suddenly go back to negative territory, Gentiloni has cautiously stated that even if downward trend in July is maintained in the following months, about 140,000 migrants were still expected to reach Italy this year.

The Libyan navy and coastguard, backed by better boats and equipment (funded by the EU and the crews trained by Italian and Libyan-British experts) managed for the first time in many years to disrupt the smugglers’ activities. Libyan coastguard ships even fired warning shots at NGO ships seeking to rescue migrants.

On its part, Italy has drawn a code of conduct for NGO rescue ships (many of them operating from Malta). The code includes some very important rules, among them that rescue ships should not enter Libya’s territorial waters except in situations of imminent danger; to never switch on the automatic identification system; not to signal to human traffickers with flares or radio to coordinate with them on when to send our their dinghies; not to transfer those rescued onto other vessels and, most importantly, to have an Italian policeman on board the NGO vessel to identify and prosecute any smugglers among the migrants.

Some NGOs have criticised the code and declined to approve it. Others have signed it. Italy has threatened to refuse access to its ports for NGO vessels that do not abide by the code. It maintains that the plan has UN backing and that its ships are merely “providing logistical, technical and operational support to the Libyan naval vessels”.

What happens in Italy in the next national election would definitely impact Malta. Between 2008 and 2012, Malta received the highest number of asylum seekers in Europe compared to its national population: 21.7 applicants per 1,000 inhabitants. In 2015 and 2016, very few migrants arrived compared to previous years. Many observers have drawn their own conclusions as to why this is happening.

The situation might change overnight with a new right-wing government in Italy in 2019, more so if the successful party wins mostly on the migrant crisis platform.

The Maltese government should keep this very possible scenario in mind so it would not be unprepared when and if faced with a dire contingency of this nature. It could easily destabilise the country in a short period of time given our limitations to cope with a serious emergency of this kind.

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