Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary is being accused of being rash in forecasting a major disruption to flights between Britain and the European Union come March 2019 unless the UK strikes an early aviation deal with the EU as part of the Brexit accord.

Mr O’Leary is outspoken and charges by aviation experts that it is somewhat premature for him to go into such dismal prognostications may well be in order. However, considering the huge size of the aviation industry as it has developed in Europe since the coming into force of the ‘open skies’ regulation, his concern and anxiety are not entirely out of place either. Other operators in the industry share the same feeling.

It goes without saying that the issue is of direct interest to Malta because Ryanair is a key player in air travel to and from the UK and other cities in Europe. Only a few days ago, the low-cost carrier – now the largest airline serving Malta, surpassing even Air Malta – announced that, as from this coming winter, it will be introducing new routes, to Belfast, Naples and Riga, and adding more flights to a number of other destinations. These will push the number of routes linked to Malta through Ryanair to 40.

Like other low-cost carriers, Ryanair is legally allowed to operate out of the UK under the Europe-wide ‘open skies’ regulation that enables all EU airlines and others in the ‘common travel area’ to fly in and out of any country signed up to the pact. Why is Ryanair so anxious that the UK strikes a deal with the EU over aviation as soon as possible? Its answer, which makes sense, is that, like all other airlines, it schedules aircraft 12 months in advance. This means it would need to know the probable new regulatory arrangements by March 2018 to ensure continuity. Disrupting a fleet operations’ schedule is no joke.

There are experts who do not share the industry’s anxiety, arguing that, since aviation was also of great economic importance to the UK, it was unlikely for the Brexit negotiators not to give the matter the importanceit deserves. One UK government spokesman has been quoted saying: “Aviation is absolutely crucial to the UK’s economy and we are committed to getting the right deal for Britain. We will work closely with the international aviation community to ensure that this global industry continues to be a major success story for the UK economy.”

Britain is one of Ryanair’s bases, with 40 of its 400 aircraft operating out of 19 UK airports. However, according to Mr O’Leary, initial signs from Brexit talks were not promising and that likely demands for any new deal, including oversight by the European Court of Justice, could be unpalatable to London.

A disruption is likely to have a huge impact on the aviation industry in the UK and tourism industries in EU member countries. Since time is ticking and Brexit negotiations are expected to be far from plain sailing, uncertainty will continue to hang over the industry unless an early accord is reached allowing the ‘open skies’ arrangements to remain in place on a transitional basis until a new pact is reached.

This would appear to be a sensible solution of benefit to both sides.

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