Last week’s test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea is yet another provocative act by Pyongyang in defiance of the international community, and this time the stakes are higher.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are those that travel at a velocity of anywhere from five to 10 kilometres per second and at a distance of at least 5,000 miles. It is the first time that such a type of missile has been test-launched by North Korea, and such a development is without doubt a game changer.
Experts say the Hwasong-14 missile launched by the regime of Kim Jong-un was powerful enough to reach Alaska, US, which makes things more complicated and creates a new challenge for US President Donald Trump. North Korean missiles are now a direct threat not only to US allies South Korea and Japan, but also to US territory, and this is a new reality that Washington has to face up to.
Last January, a few weeks before taking office, Mr Trump had ridiculed North Korea’s claim that it would soon test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US. Mr Trump had bluntly tweeted: “It won’t happen!” Well, it has happened, which makes the US President look like a bluffer, somebody who can’t be taken seriously and who is obviously out of his depth when to comes to global issues.
The main question, of course, is whether this ICBM is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which North Korea says it is. It has long been established that Pyongyang has the potential to build nuclear weapons, but experts are not convinced the country has the capacity to place miniaturised nuclear warheads on their missiles.
If it is actually established that North Korea does have this nuclear competence, then we are entering a new dangerous territory. Not because Pyongyang can destroy America – the US response to any first strike nuclear missile attack against it would be so devastating that North Korea would simply not exist – but because the stakes would be so much higher.
The North Korean ICBM missile launch makes the US President look like a bluffer who is obviously out of his depth when to comes to global issues
President Trump is correct to make dealing with North Korea an urgent priority of his administration but he has not handled this situation particularly well and seems to lack a coherent strategy (like most of his foreign policy). Taking to Twitter in an impulsive manner certainly doesn’t help address one of the most dangerous challenges of the post-Cold War era, and neither does his loud rhetoric about how he will deal will Kim Jong-un, something that can only make the North Koreas more belligerent.
Mr Trump is also right to ask China to exert pressure on North Korea over its nuclear programme, but he has not had much success here, even though he cannot be completely blamed for this. However, here again, his bullying rhetoric towards China on Twitter is simply inappropriate.
Mr Trump’s options are certainly limited, and the military option, which should never be 100 per cent ruled out, is just too risky to be seriously contemplated. First of all, if the US was to attack what it believes are North Korea’s nuclear sites, as well as other military sites, the chances of success are not very good. Many of these targets are dispersed across the country and often underground or undersea, so destroying them all is certainly not guaranteed.
Furthermore, the North Korean response to such a pre-emptive attack would be to attack the South Korean capital Seoul as well as other targets in Japan and South Korea, including US military bases. North Korean artillery could flatten Seoul, which lies just 35 miles from the North Korean border, and Pyongyang would also unleash chemical weapons on its targets, and use whatever nuclear weapons survive an initial US strike, if such nuclear warheads exist.
An attack on North Korea might also pull China, its only ally, into the conflict. And how would Russia react? A conflict on the Korean peninsula would destabilise not only the region, but the whole world, and is in nobody’s interest.
At this stage, the only viable option is intense diplomacy and if necessary, increased economic sanctions on North Korea. And China must be convinced to play a more constructive role in addressing this problem. As North Korea’s only ally, it has a special responsibility to help find a solution.
American diplomacy could possibly include a number of symbolic political concessions to North Korea such as the opening of a US liaison mission in Pyongyang, while remaining firmly committed to the security of South Korea.
Dealing with North Korea is always going to be difficult, and the US has to convince Pyongyang that while it will never accept it having nuclear weapons, it has no intention of overthrowing the regime.
The best option now for the US is to increase its range of economic sanctions on North Korea and on foreign companies and financiers that do business with the regime, as happened in the case of Iran, which ultimately led Teheran to the bargaining table. This has to be done in parallel with diplomatic negotiations aimed at arriving at some kind of ‘grand bargain’ which might lead to North Korea possibly freezing (under international supervision) its nuclear programme in return for a guarantee of its territorial integrity.
What is needed right now from Washington is a long-term, level-headed viable strategy for dealing with North Korea, without any stupid outbursts on Twitter, and one that involves China as much as possible in finding a solution.