On June 3, Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) gained its most significant strategic military victory in the southern part of the country which now means that almost two thirds of Libya is under Haftar’s control. This is a game changer.
The LNA entered the southern town of Waddan in Jufra and overran the area. The nearby towns including Sukna and, with local tribes’ cooperation, Jufra air force base was taken by the LNA. This is of tremendous strategic importance as Jufra AFB will give the LNA air striking coverage of the entire country particularly of western Libya and makes a direct land route, logistically and tactically, without significant obstacles, for them from east to west Libya when the route is reinforced by troops.
This victory could prove to be the most decisive one for the LNA since its creation by Haftar.
The LNA were up against Tripoli’s Government of National Accord militias that mostly comprised of the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), and disturbingly supported by Chadian mercenaries. But the LNA did have the support of the local populace.
The essentially Qatari-supported Benghazi Defense Brigade, the perpetrators of the massacre at the Le Brak air force base, are now classified as a terror organisation by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain.
The strategy of the LNA is to take Misrata and Tripoli with minimum deaths. It is expected that the tribes of the region will help minimise deaths and that within 30 days Tripoli will be liberated and some of the militias will cooperate.
Either the Government of National Accord and the Presidential Council accepts the recent ‘olive branch’ from Haftar or he must continue military objectives until he overcomes Tripoli itself, which many see as the last battle.
The Libyan National Army is in striking distance to conquer the remaining third of the country
For me, Haftar did extend an ‘olive branch’ compromising himself under certain conditions, to the US, the UK, EU, and the UN-backed GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj while simultaneously correctly pursuing, what is proving to be a very clever military strategy by overtaking the Jufra AFB in order to force a political solution before a military one. It looks like they didn’t accept the olive branch, but the tribes did.
Thus the LNA is in striking distance to conquer the remaining third of the country. Both Tripoli and Misrata must accept the LNA victory and oust the Muslim Brotherhood Sect and al-Qaeda members and sympathisers, and especially the Libyan Islamic Fighters Group (LIFG) who have been directly implicated in the recent Manchester suicide bombing.
Their alternative is the LNA campaign to eradicate terrorists will seize Tripoli and Sabratha with the help of some militias previously loyal to GNA and local tribes, that way ensuring minimum civilian casualties.
What needs to be done now is to ‘plan for the peace after the war’ which is something the US and UK spectacularly failed to do in Iraq.
At this point I introduce a rather controversial subject – Saif Gaddafi. The events in and around Jufra are connected to Libyan ‘militias’ in Tripoli releasing some Gaddafi-era nobles including Saif’s brother, Saadi and former prime minister Baghdadi from prison.
These developments are part of a new dynamic that seems to be entering the Libyan stage. The idea is to establish a Truth and Reconciliation Tribunal, similar to Mandela’s South Africa’s, in order to bring unity to the country.
Specific Libyan tribes are starting to back Saif Gaddafi and if they had the backing of HOR and Haftar, a new and hopefully peaceful attempt at unification may appear when the fighting stops.
When Saif was released last year, the question as to what role he could play in the war-torn country immediately became a legitimate and relevant subject.
Most of the tribes that supported his father, Muammar Gaddafi, see him as a redeemer and are willing to support his involvement in any political process that helps to bring about national reconciliation.
Haftar is close to the elders of the Warfalla tribe.
The Warfalla tribe is the biggest tribe in Libya located mainly in the Bani Walid and Sirte area, along with the Warshfana tribe and both tribes are against extremists and many are sympathetic to Saif Gaddafi.
Importantly, the tribes believe that Saif can help reach an accommodation with Libyan parties in a Mandela-style commission/tribunal to forgive or prosecute, where appropriate, crimes committed pre- and post-2011.
The LNA is winning and is popular, while simultaneously it has to be said that Saif is also becoming popular among a large segment of the Libyan people.
Any planned solution to a post-civil war Libya must be considered even one involving a Gaddafi family member.
Either way, the civil war seems to be now all but over and won by the LNA.
Richard Galustian is a British political and security advisor based in MENA countries for nearly 40 years.