The question was never whether the Labour Party would win the election. The only question was by how much. Reliable polls consistently predicted an 18 to 25K majority for the PL, although as the campaign neared its end the gap widened and there was even talk of 30K+.
The PN executive and their propaganda machine were telling a different story – that victory would be theirs. Facebook and the social media ‘sound studio’ amplified this distorted message, and some online surveys even predicted a Nationalist breakthrough.
There is no poll more accurate than the election itself, and today we know that the PL did it again, against many odds (and a hugely caustic campaign conducted by a mainstream anti-Labour media). It was a bigger landslide than 2013, a crushing defeat for PN, a double whammy unprecedented in Maltese politics.
There are those who believe that had Panama not been an issue, the PL would have won by an even bigger margin. But I have a different theory. Panama was supposed to be the albatross around Joseph Muscat’s neck, but by the end of the campaign it was Simon Busuttil who was wearing the carcass.
Panama, as PN’s trump card, could have worked if it had not been overplayed. Changing metaphor, it should have been presented to the electorate as a side-salad, not a main course. Then there was that other thing: timing. Nowhere is that more important than in politics. Panama came two years too soon. And here, even sooner than it should have.
Had the leaks emerged naturally, a few months later, their effects might have been more decisive on the political landscape. Instead, by March 2017, Panama was long off the boil and people were more interested in the Eurovision song contest. With nothing else to spin, it was time for PN to breathe new life into Panama; and this, thanks to Daphne Caruana Galizia’s midwifery, gave birth to Egrant. I don’t think PN was expecting an election but they got one all the same. And suddenly Egrant became the cornerstone of its smear campaign.
Still, even from the first political debate, you could tell that Busuttil was not entirely comfortable with the Egrant allegations (how much was slander and spin?) and unlike Muscat, he was unwilling to put his neck on the line. When you are relying on someone else’s instincts and convictions, you are bound to lack courage. As the campaign progressed, Muscat kept his cool (despite facing a criminal inquiry and the nastiness of a possible frame-up) and looked far more comfortable in his skin than Busuttil.
I hope PL can begin to lose the stigma of corruption and focus on the main issues concerning Malta
I reckon there are two determining factors in any election: the party who runs the better campaign (policies, proposals, vision) and the leader who can better communicate his message and who exudes the greater confidence. With all its eggs in the Egrant basket – and compounded by its own track-record of corruption and lack of transparency (even in Opposition) – PN began to falter, and more people came to feel that, all things being equal, they’d be better off under Labour.
There’s also another very human factor. Faced with an attack from outside, people tend to close ranks. I know many who were put off by the Labour government for one reason or another, but who changed their minds once the PN campaign turned nasty and the Egrant allegations seemed less than solid.
Which brings me to the Facebook foot soldiers specifically recruited to troll anyone who had the audacity to voice a dissenting opinion. I am inclined to think that the PN’s biggest enemy was (is) its own supporters. When all is said and done, it’s people who win elections. Looking down on a huge chunk of the electorate (whose votes you need), calling them stupid, immoral, unprincipled, mercenary and corrupt won’t cut it. Too many PN supporters still fancy themselves as White Supremacists unwilling to get on board (the bus) with the great unwashed.
PN has taken its second beating at the polls and is now having to deal with the metaphorical rats abandoning a sinking ship. Therese Commodini Cachia’s instinctive decision to choose Brussels over Malta understandably enraged many who regarded this as an opportunistic and duplicitous ‘fishing-for-votes’ exercise. She has since U-turned and will be staying on. It’s a pity her votes could not be inherited by PD’s upstanding Anthony Buttigieg, a breath of fresh air we so desperately need. He too has had to deal with his own ‘sinking ship’, after coalition co-founder Marlene Farrugia expressed an interest in contesting the PN leadership, which could have potentially left him and PD in the lurch.
I was horrified to learn that PL’s Edward Zammit Lewis was not elected. It is sad that someone exemplary who has never been implicated in any scandal and who worked tirelessly to promote good governance should become the victim of his own propriety. It is also possible that when you’re trying to save the national airline you don’t have time for cosy house visits.
Finally, a warning to the ‘winner’ – the Prime Minister who has been given a second mandate. The health of our national institutions, and the right ordering of the checks and balances of our Constitution, are in his and his government’s hands. Tales of malpractice, even if exaggerated, are not good.
I sincerely hope, therefore, that the PL can begin to lose, and not just cosmetically, the stigma of corruption and focus instead on the main issues concerning Malta: the environment, noise, the long-term sustainability of our water supplies, the nation’s health, wealth, education and wellbeing, not forgetting greener energy and transportation.
The tipping points between charming and tacky, pleasant and nightmarish, are so critical on this small, overpopulated and often ‘distracted’ island of ours.
michelaspiteri@gmail.com