While Malta was engaged in its general election, in the universe beyond our inverted navel-gazing a genuinely historic election took place in France, the effects of which will be felt by Malta, Europe and, indeed, the whole world.

A month ago, the European Union avoided a catastrophe. As French voters propelled Emmanuel Macron, a centrist Europhile, into the Elysee Palace, his anti-EU, ultra-nationalist rival, Marine Le Pen, was rejected by a margin of two to one. A global financial crisis was averted.

France is the cornerstone of the EU and the euro. With Britain’s departure from the union, it is now the only nuclear power in the union and its only member on the UN Security Council. Re-establishing leadership alongside Germany will boost the EU diplomatically, militarily and, if Macron proves successful in reinvigorating France, economically.

But even with Macron as president, real alarm about France remains. The rise of French Euroscepticism, anti-globalisation and anti-immigration – which were the leitmotif of the recent elections – remain. More importantly, Macron has no base yet in the National Assembly, which will hold its own elections over the next 10 days.

Macron will need to strike deals in parliament to deliver even a fraction of his promises. In the Paris metro a defaced advertisement perhaps summed it up with typical Gallic cynicism: “Macron. Not even started, already hated.”

There is a risk Macron may become a lame-duck president. He faces a battle for his plans for a political renaissance. Unless his new party, Republique En Marche, lands a governing majority in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, his opponents will run the country while he attends ceremonies and summits.

He needs a straight majority to govern as he wants. Without a majority he will have to negotiate a power-sharing alliance with other parties, or accept that government will be in the hands of his opposition. He has made a fresh start by selecting a cross-party cabinet (of 11 men and 11 women) of the left, the centre and the right with orders to make its mark before the forthcoming National Assembly elections.

He wants to modernise the welfare state while promoting the idea that free trade is not evil. The key will lie in the ability to introduce pro business tax cuts and lighter regulation to reduce unemployment. But his ideas are anathema to many and the unions have already warned him to expect strife. His challenge is to convince his sceptical citizens that he can deliver something new.

Macron will need to strike deals in parliament to deliver even a fraction of his promises

Despite Macron’s victory and his clear push to “relaunch” the European Union, few Brussels officials and diplomats believe that ignoring French Euroscepticism is any longer a viable option. This leaves the EU with serious problems if it is to tackle the key questions of Eurozone reform, trade and open borders.

Over the past six or seven years, the EU has lurched from crisis to crisis, with Britain’s imminent departure only the latest blow. Macron’s promise of a drive towards a European federal structure may sound encouraging, but few believe that anything will change in practice.

However, there is hope for improvement. Macron’s election may see money pouring back into the continent. Indeed, it is already happening. Moreover, the eurozone grew even faster than the US economy last year. If the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts are borne out (a big if, but nonetheless possible) the EU’s growth as measured by GDP will exceed Britain’s next year for the first time in seven years.

Consumer confidence in Europe is at the joint highest level in 10 years according to figures published recently. Having sold off billions of euros of French debt for fear of a Le Pen victory, investors are poised to return capital to France now she has lost.

There are grounds for hope for the EU. The virtuous circle which began with the Dutch elections in March, when the extremist Geert Wilders was seen off by a centrist prime minister, could conceivably continue into the autumn when Angela Merkel (CDU) and Martin Schultz (SPD) – both pro-Europeans, with Merkel in the ascendant – battle it out for the German elections.

While Britain faces another fall in real earnings as the consequences of Brexit and the weak pound begin to bite, and President Trump presides over a dysfunctional White House and a ballooning national debt, might the European Union distinguish itself as an economic success story? An open, centrist, progressive continent with real earnings rising and government deficits falling? Perhaps.

Given Europe’s capacity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, this may be far-fetched. But believing in the success of the European project has always demanded a generous act of faith. Faith that, provided the EU survives long enough, its biggest problems will dissolve. Faith that – despite French and German reservations - Greece’s unsustainable debts would eventually become federalised EU debt, rendering them manageable.

France, Germany, Italy and Spain may reconstitute Europe as a two-speed body, with a core Mitteleuropa and lesser members on the outside, able to engage in the single market without sharing the same currency or the same strictures on freedom of movement. The problem is that Europe already exists, warts and all. Re-imagining it involves expelling nations from the core.

Where will Malta stand? Given Malta’s successful economy, we might hope to form a part of the core group, though given our recent breast-beating and self-flagellation about “corruption”, we may not.

As we gaze into the crystal ball, there are plenty of electoral obstacles in the way. Macron’s electoral problems to govern France effectively are still to come. Italy holds elections next year, with Beppe Grillo of the Clown’s Party now leading in the polls. Greece may need further funding help this summer if it is to stay afloat, and this time the IMF will not be around to help.

The British elections tomorrow will probably bring a Conservative leader who is prepared to risk a hard Brexit if she does not get the deal she wants – with the economic turmoil which this could throw up both for Britain and the EU.

Europe is notoriously bad at grasping nettles. Envisaging a promised land – whether a multi-speed Europe or an integrated Europe – is easy. Implementing it has always been the problem. The French election of Macron may provide the window of opportunity.

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