The election campaign has been a hard-nosed battle between Joseph Muscat and Simon Busuttil. Kurt Sansone maps out three possible scenarios from yesterday’s vote and their impact on the future of the two leaders.

Scenario 1: Labour wins by a landslide

Joseph Muscat

A scenario that sees the Labour Party winning by a 13,000-plus majority will result in the second largest margin of victory for any party after that of four years ago.

This would obviously strengthen Joseph Muscat’s hand for the second term, allowing him to complete what has always been his plan: to lead the country for 10 years before bowing out. It would also vindicate his decision to go for an early election.

Dr Muscat will have accomplished this feat despite the scandals hounding his administration, the Opposition’s incessant attacks and the uncompromising position taken by the independent media.

This does not mean Dr Muscat’s tenure will not have its problems. At some point in the months or weeks following the general election, Magistrate Aaron Bugeja is expected to conclude the inquiry into the Egrant claims. His conclusions could either exculpate Dr Muscat and his wife Michelle, further strengthening the Prime Minister’s hand, or the magistrate could ask for a criminal investigation to be conducted.

Dr Muscat has already said that if the magistrate finds even a hint of truth in what was alleged about his wife, he will resign and leave politics for good. In this scenario, his future has been mapped out, but not that of his party and the government.

But a trickier situation awaits the Prime Minister if the other magisterial inquiries under way on alleged money laundering and graft by his chief of staff, Keith Schembri, point to wrongdoing.

Mr Schembri’s future has already been determined, in that Dr Muscat has said that in this scenario, his right-hand man will have to resign. But with Mr Schembri being so close to the Prime Minister, the fallout will undoubtedly harm Dr Muscat.

With a big victory under his belt, the Prime Minister might well survive the onslaught, but it will be a difficult next term at the top.

Simon Busuttil

A massive defeat will spell trouble for the Nationalist Party leader’s politi­cal career. It will mean that in four years, Dr Busuttil will have made little impact in terms of attracting voters back to the PN. His position in the party will become untenable, more so if in the clutches of defeat his gamble to absorb the Democratic Party into the PN fold also results in the election of a PD MP.

Dr Busuttil has so far refrained from saying what his political future will be if the PN loses the election, but it will be very hard for him to stay on. If he chooses to seek reconfirmation as leader, he might be in for a hard five years amid growing dissent within the PN, an experience the PL went through after Alfred Sant’s volte face in 2003, when he first resigned only to change his mind a few weeks later.

Scenario 2: Labour wins small

Joseph Muscat

A victory is always a victory, and the Prime Minister would still get the chance to fulfil his plan to lead the country for two legislatures.

But depending on the margin, the next five years would be anything but a politically easy ride. A slim victory of two or three thousand would be a major reality check for Dr Muscat and could foster greater dissent within the PL towards his leadership style. He would likely stay on, but questions could start to be asked about whether he should last the whole legislature or be replaced by a fresh face.

This scenario could also embolden the Opposition further in the belief that a sustained campaign on corruption and bad governance would eventually reap the desired results.

If the margin of a PL victory was upward of 5,000 votes, Dr Muscat would have survived the voters’ wrath but his hand would be weakened if the magisterial inquiries linked to Mr Schembri found any wrongdoing.

Simon Busuttil

This scenario would be the trickiest one for the Nationa­list Party and Dr Busuttil. If defeated by a couple thousand votes, Dr Busuttil might be tempted to stay on, as Eddie Fenech Adami did in 1996.

The PN leader might argue it would only be a matter of time before the PL imploded, hoping it would lead to another earlier-than-expected election. However, this might be a difficult argument to sell, since it would mean another period of negative campaigning, something not everyone in the PN appears comfortable with.

It would also have to be seen whether, if he decided to stay on, Dr Busuttil’s leadership would be challenged and by whom.

Of course, he might also decide to call it a day and make way for a fresh face at the helm.

If the margin of defeat were to be anything but a slim one, Dr Busuttil’s political career would be in serious jeopardy.

Scenario 3: PN victory

Joseph Muscat

In this scenario, the Labour leader has already said he would resign and make way for someone else to lead the party. The question is, who would step forward to fill Dr Muscat’s shoes.

Another, deeper question would be whether the party should choose to carry forward the Muscatian philosophy or change its economic and social policies.

Given that defeat would have come on the back of numerous scandals, the party might decide to elect someone in the Muscatian mould on the basis that a change of face would be enough to convince the electorate that lessons were learnt.

Simon Busuttil

The PN leader would gain instant hero status irrespective of the margin of victory. Against all odds, Dr Busuttil would have turned the tables on the largest ever defeat in political history, winning back the government in just four years. He would also have belied the polls that have consistently put his trust rating far below Dr Muscat’s.

His gamble to rope in the PD would be viewed in a positive light, at least initially. But if the PD did manage to elect an MP, the management of the coalition in Parliament would come under intense scrutiny, even by some inside the party.

If a stormy relationship developed, it would rekindle memories of Lawrence Gonzi’s last administration, characterised by inertia as a result of constant parliamentary turmoil. The situation would become more complicated in the case of a one-seat majority held by the PD.

After an election won on the basis of a good governance platform, Dr Busuttil’s actions in this regard would be under the spotlight. But so would his handling of the eco­nomy, public finances and social policy.

He could face intense pressure from the PL opposition in the months following the election if the Egrant inquiry were to find no wrongdoing by the Muscats.

But this would likely bounce off his newfound status as the comeback kid.