What will it take for the Labour and Nationalist parties to win the election?
This is not an exercise that tries to predict who will emerge victorious after Saturday’s vote but a factual analysis of the geographical distribution of party strength in the last election and how this could influence the outcome.
The table below gives a colour coded breakdown of how the votes were distributed in the 13 districts in 2013. The strength is determined on the number of votes obtained not parliamentary seats.
Admittedly, some localities have changed districts since then after the electoral boundaries were adjusted. However, by and large, the geographical spread of red and blue appears to have been retained.
A look at the table confirms what has been evident since Day One, that the PN has a higher a mountain to climb to claim victory.
For Simon Busuttil’s coalition to start hoping for victory, it is imperative that the 10th and 11th districts turn dark blue and the 9th and 13th turn a shade darker.
However, it will also be necessary for the PN to make inroads in the PL’s southern hinterland where the number of voters is much higher.
Over here, the PN would hope to turn some of the red districts into a lighter shade. Flipping the 1st district into a light blue would be a boon.
For Joseph Muscat’s party it is imperative to retain its red strongholds and prevent the orange ones turning into a lighter shade.
In the northern districts the PL’s main focus would be Gozo where it only lost by a mere 240 votes, last time around, even it claimed a majority of seats. Turning the 13th district a pale orange would be a boon for the PL in the face of a harder slog in the other PN-leaning districts.
What could be interesting to watch next Saturday is the number of votes Alternattiva Demokratika and the Maltese Patriots will get, especially if the election turns out to be a tight affair.
In 2013, the votes AD gained, despite polling its highest ever result in a general election, did not impact the final outcome since the PL’s margin of victory was stratospheric. Will the story be different this time?
In 60 hours we will be able to answer that question.