Nearly one-third of the electorate, a chunk large enough to sway the election result, will decide who they will vote for during the last few remaining days of the campaign, according to a survey conducted for The Sunday Times of Malta.

When asked if they had already decided which way they would vote or if they were still undecided, 29 per cent of respondents admitted that they had yet to make up their minds.

In a separate question, the respondents were asked to name the party that they would vote for in the election on June 3 – and 33 per cent of them did not express a vo-ting intention.

“This level of non-res-ponse is higher than it was in the opinion polls preceding the previous elections,” Law-rence Zammit, director of Misco International, which conducted the survey, told The Sunday Times of Malta.

“In 2008, the level of non-response was 23 per cent, and it was the same in 2013.”

The high percentage who regret their 2013 vote and who are still undecided­­­ would indicate the potentially decisive influence of the uncommitted voters

Among those who declared their intention, 38 per cent said they would be voting for the Labour Party and 28 per cent for the Nationalist Party. However, this must be seen in the light of a previous question asking them to name the party they had voted for in 2013, where the result differed very significantly from the actual result and the PN vote was highly understated.

Respondents were also asked whether they regretted the way they had voted in the 2013 election, and 12 per cent said yes.  This too is higher than in previous surveys. “It is important to note that this figure of 12 per cent is much higher than the level registered in the 2013 and 2008 elections,” said Mr Zammit.

“In 2008, the level of respondents who claimed they regretted the way they voted in the previous general election was five per cent. In 2013, it was six per cent.” ­­

So while the stated voting intentions point to a clear favourite – the Labour Party – the high percentage of those who regret the way they voted in 2013 and the high proportion who are still undecided­­­ would indicate the potentially decisive influence of the uncommitted voters.

The survey was conducted among a random sample of 800 respondents between May 19 and 25.

Interviews were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers under the direct supervision of Misco International coordinators.

Most voters ‘do what’s best for the country’

Twenty-seven per cent of respondents said that they would vote according to what is best for them personally, but 73 per cent said they would base their decision on what is best for the country. 

The older the respondent, the more likely it is that the country’s interests come before personal interests in the way they vote.

The next question was to name the party which, in respondents’ opinion, would best serve their personal interests. Forty-two per cent mentioned the Labour Party, 29 per cent mentioned the Nationalist Party, and another 29 per cent did not give an opinion or answered that neither of them would.

Among those who regret the way they voted in 2013, 42 per cent cited the PN as best serving their personal interests, 28 per cent cited the Labour Party, and the remaining 30 per cent did not have an opinion or said neither of them.

Respondents were asked to name the party which would be best for the country. Forty-four per cent said Labour, 32 per cent answered the PN, and 24 per cent did not state an opinion or said neither of them.

Of those who stated that they regret the way they voted in 2013, 50 per cent mentioned the Nationalist Party as being best for the country, 34 per cent mentioned the Labour Party and 16 per cent did not state an opinion or said neither of them.

Corruption rises as the main issue

The main issue that will determine how the Maltese vote is corruption, and this got even more mentions than in this newspaper’s survey last week. 

Respondents were not prompted with a list of set answers, and 22 per cent of them mentioned corruption, up from 17 per cent last week. The second most important issue was the economy, mentioned by 14 per cent, up from 11 per cent last week.

22 per cent mentioned corruption, up from 17 per cent last week

A number of other issues were cited, however they received a low number of mentions. Eleven per cent of respondents said that they did not know which issue will determine the way they vote, down from 18 per cent last week. Corruption is the main issue across all age groups, as well as both genders, but less so among persons aged 34 years and under.

Analysing results by socio-economic grouping, one notes that among ABC1’s (see Methodology box on the right for definition) corruption acquires more importance but it loses importance among persons in the C2 and DE categories, even though it still remains the main issue in these latter categories as well.

It is even more so among those respondents who regret the way they voted in 2013. It was mentioned by 38 per cent of those respondents, compared to the 22 per cent of the total sample.

Which party to trust?

A total of 34 per cent of respondents said they would place their trust in the PN to fight corruption, above the 31 per cent mentioning Labour, while 35 per cent did not have an opinion or said neither of them. On this question, males tended to be evenly split in their opinions, but women had a clear preference for the Nationalist Party. Preference for the PN is also greater among persons aged 35 and older and persons with a higher level of education.

Among those that regret how they voted in 2013, 52 per cent named the PN as the party they would trust most to fight corruption, 18 per cent mentioned Labour and 30 per cent did not express an opinion.

Among those who did not express a voting intention this election, 16 per cent trust the PN to fight corruption, while nine per cent went for Labour. A total of 75 per cent did not state an opinion or said neither of them.

Respondents were also asked to name the party they trust most to run the country’s economy. Forty-four per cent said PL, 28 per cent the PN, while another 28 per cent said neither of them or did not give an opinion.

The positive perception in fav-our of Labour runs across all demographic segments, even though women have a slightly less negative perception than the sample average.

Among those who regret how they voted in 2013, 38 per cent said they would trust the PN most to run the country’s economy, while 33 per cent of them preferred Labour. The other 30 per cent did not state an opinion or said neither of them.

Methodology

Respondents in the Misco survey were selected using the random digit dialling method.

A total of 1,826 persons were contacted to achieve the sample of 800 respondents.

The data was weighted according to age, gender and region. Weighting is used to adjust the results of a study to bring them more in line with what is known about a population. The weighting was done according to the demographic review of 2013.

A sample of 800 respondents provides a margin of error within plus or minus 3.5 per cent. However, when one applies the weighting efficiency resulting from the weighting of the data by age, gender and region, the margin of error increases to plus or minus 3.7 per cent.

The weighting efficiency is the amount of skewing that has to be done to align the sample to the actual population data.

The data was also analysed by the socio-economic group and level of education of respondents.

Age groups
18 – 24
25 – 34
35 – 44
45 – 54
55 – 61
62 and over

Regions
Northern
Northern Harbour
Southern Harbour
South Eastern
Western
Gozo and Comino

Socio-economic groups

AB – Respondents living in households where the chief income earner is or was in a higher and intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupation.

C1 – Respondents living in households where the chief income is or was in a supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative, professional occupation.

C2 – Respondents living in households where the chief earner is or was in a skilled manual occupation.

DE – Respondents living in households where the chief earner is or was in a semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupation or unemployed.

Levels of education
Primary Level
Secondary Level
Post-Secondary Level
University Level

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