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Why Le Pen won’t work

Sunday’s first round vote in the French elections produced no surprises as both frontrunners, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, progressed to the second round vote, to be held on May 7, whereby one of the two will become the successor to current president  Francois Hollande.

The majority of defeated candidates in last Sunday’s vote have been quick to endorse  Macron, to prevent Le Pen being given the chance to implement her anti-EU, anti-immigration agenda. Most have argued her policies would most certainly create a divided France.

Why is everyone against Le Pen?

France’s ruling of Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria predominantly up to the mid-20th century along with a vast number of Sub-Saharan African nations and overseas territories, were grounds for immigration and till today continues to be so.

The call of many patriots, like Le Pen, to give France back to the French is a past illusion. Semitic, African and White nationals today all claim the same right to being French. These cultural differences continue to spark conflicts till today.

What many fail to realise is that most of the decolonisation of France’s empire under General De Gaulle, in favour of national independence and France’s best interest came too late in history and did not reverse immigration or revert France to a ‘white’ people’s nation. On the other hand, it led to division in a society where settled families that became ‘French’ as part of the larger empire were now considered immigrant families post-decolonisation.

France’s multiculturalism is the consequence of its rich history. What patriots call for today, reflects the Gaullist ideas of a strong France, extreme nationalism and conservatism or alternatively a post-Revolution but pre-Napoleonic era. A democratic nation, founded on the grounds of liberty, equality and brotherhood, for the French prior to any of Napoleon’s conquests forming the French empire.

That ship has long sailed!

History cannot be changed. The passage of time has today shaped today’s reality where different social classes previously united under the French empire, all claim a right to be on French territory.

Whilst concerns today of Jihadist Islamism are rightly founded, enforcing the expulsion of immigrants, promoting xenophobic fear and implementing protectionist measures will only further divide the division that currently exists today as a result of France’s multicultural society.

Marine Le Pen would not create division but aggravate it, as it already exists!

Whilst opinions may differ on the political agendas of all other political candidates, the majority maintain or at least accept at differing levels that France has over the years become a diverse population.

It is on this premise for one that Marine Le Pen finds herself isolated in her political views, which ahead of the second round vote on May 7, will be difficult for her to sway voters, having so far failed to gather any endorsements.

Whilst Macron may not tick all boxes for many voters, he is the stronger choice in the run-off for the promotion of stability and unity in an already fragile country, bearing the consequences of cultural division and Islamic extremism.

Can Islamist extremism be tackled? Of course.

Whilst Macron’s electoral agenda could be perceived weak on the matter, solutions and reforms can be found other than through extreme protectionist measures.

A Le Pen victory could potentially lead France into an all new type of Revolution. Who knows?

Luckily the polls, unreliable as they are, indicate Macron defeating Le Pen by 25 percentage points. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Disclaimer: This article was issued by Mathieu Ganado, Junior Investment Manager at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt .The information, views and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website.

 

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